Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities in the 2026 Iran war. President Trump recently rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," declaring the ceasefire "on life support" just days ago, while Iran warned of retaliation and refused upfront concessions on uranium enrichment limits. Core sticking points persist on sanctions relief, a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening, and ballistic missile curbs, with no breakthrough since early May proposals for a one-page memorandum fizzled. The compressed two-week timeline, historical negotiation impasses, and mutual red lines make a formal agreement highly unlikely barring a sudden diplomatic reversal.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$583,176 거래량
$583,176 거래량
2026.05.31
$583,176 거래량
$583,176 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities in the 2026 Iran war. President Trump recently rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," declaring the ceasefire "on life support" just days ago, while Iran warned of retaliation and refused upfront concessions on uranium enrichment limits. Core sticking points persist on sanctions relief, a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening, and ballistic missile curbs, with no breakthrough since early May proposals for a one-page memorandum fizzled. The compressed two-week timeline, historical negotiation impasses, and mutual red lines make a formal agreement highly unlikely barring a sudden diplomatic reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
마켓 개설일: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
거래량
$583,176종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities in the 2026 Iran war. President Trump recently rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," declaring the ceasefire "on life support" just days ago, while Iran warned of retaliation and refused upfront concessions on uranium enrichment limits. Core sticking points persist on sanctions relief, a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening, and ballistic missile curbs, with no breakthrough since early May proposals for a one-page memorandum fizzled. The compressed two-week timeline, historical negotiation impasses, and mutual red lines make a formal agreement highly unlikely barring a sudden diplomatic reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
거래량
$583,176종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities in the 2026 Iran war. President Trump recently rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," declaring the ceasefire "on life support" just days ago, while Iran warned of retaliation and refused upfront concessions on uranium enrichment limits. Core sticking points persist on sanctions relief, a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening, and ballistic missile curbs, with no breakthrough since early May proposals for a one-page memorandum fizzled. The compressed two-week timeline, historical negotiation impasses, and mutual red lines make a formal agreement highly unlikely barring a sudden diplomatic reversal.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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