Iran’s repeated statements that uranium enrichment constitutes a non-negotiable sovereign right have anchored trader expectations for the “No” outcome. In recent indirect talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan, Tehran’s May counterproposal deferred nuclear issues until after any agreement on the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief, while offering only to discuss a temporary pause of up to fifteen years rather than permanent cessation. U.S. demands for a multi-decade moratorium or full suspension on Iranian soil have been rejected, with Iranian officials describing enrichment limits as a red line. IAEA assessments continue to track Iran’s substantial stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, and no public diplomatic breakthrough or Supreme Leader directive has emerged in the final two weeks before the May 31 deadline. These factors sustain the prevailing market view that a binding public commitment to end enrichment remains unlikely.