The current 70% implied probability that no additional country will join the Board of Peace by June 30 reflects the completion of its founding phase in January 2026, when roughly two dozen states signed the charter alongside the United States at the Davos ceremony. Since the February inaugural meeting in Washington, where members pledged billions in reconstruction aid for Gaza and established an executive structure, diplomatic focus has turned to implementation rather than expansion. Most major Western allies, including several G7 nations, have declined full membership or opted for observer status, and no new accession announcements or high-level bilateral breakthroughs have occurred in the past month. Structural barriers such as concerns over the Board’s mandate, Russia’s ambiguous participation, and competing regional priorities continue to limit near-term growth in membership.