Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently directed coalition partners to shelve legislation granting military conscription exemptions for full-time yeshiva students until after the 2026 Knesset elections, citing insufficient support within Likud and the ongoing security situation. This followed April High Court of Justice rulings ordering enforcement of draft obligations and revocation of welfare benefits for non-enlisting Haredi men, building on the 2024 expiration of prior exemption frameworks. Ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and Degel HaTorah have threatened coalition collapse over the delay, yet advancing bills face procedural hurdles and public opposition ahead of the September 30 deadline. These coalition fractures and judicial constraints underpin the trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probability against enactment by the target date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.09.30
신규
신규
2026.09.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently directed coalition partners to shelve legislation granting military conscription exemptions for full-time yeshiva students until after the 2026 Knesset elections, citing insufficient support within Likud and the ongoing security situation. This followed April High Court of Justice rulings ordering enforcement of draft obligations and revocation of welfare benefits for non-enlisting Haredi men, building on the 2024 expiration of prior exemption frameworks. Ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and Degel HaTorah have threatened coalition collapse over the delay, yet advancing bills face procedural hurdles and public opposition ahead of the September 30 deadline. These coalition fractures and judicial constraints underpin the trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probability against enactment by the target date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
거래량
$957종료일
2026.09.30마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently directed coalition partners to shelve legislation granting military conscription exemptions for full-time yeshiva students until after the 2026 Knesset elections, citing insufficient support within Likud and the ongoing security situation. This followed April High Court of Justice rulings ordering enforcement of draft obligations and revocation of welfare benefits for non-enlisting Haredi men, building on the 2024 expiration of prior exemption frameworks. Ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and Degel HaTorah have threatened coalition collapse over the delay, yet advancing bills face procedural hurdles and public opposition ahead of the September 30 deadline. These coalition fractures and judicial constraints underpin the trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probability against enactment by the target date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$957종료일
2026.09.30마켓 개설일
Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently directed coalition partners to shelve legislation granting military conscription exemptions for full-time yeshiva students until after the 2026 Knesset elections, citing insufficient support within Likud and the ongoing security situation. This followed April High Court of Justice rulings ordering enforcement of draft obligations and revocation of welfare benefits for non-enlisting Haredi men, building on the 2024 expiration of prior exemption frameworks. Ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and Degel HaTorah have threatened coalition collapse over the delay, yet advancing bills face procedural hurdles and public opposition ahead of the September 30 deadline. These coalition fractures and judicial constraints underpin the trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probability against enactment by the target date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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