Reza Pahlavi remains in exile and has not entered Iranian territory, with his public statements framing any return as contingent on the Islamic Republic's collapse and a subsequent transitional phase. Recent developments include his April 2026 European tour urging Western support for regime change, March announcements detailing a pre-planned transition structure under his leadership, and continued promotion of the Iran Prosperity Project as a framework for post-regime governance. The regime's institutional continuity—following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's early 2026 death and swift succession by Mojtaba Khamenei with IRGC backing—has sustained border and security controls that bar opposition figures. Traders assess low near-term probability due to these structural barriers, though shifts in U.S. policy, diplomatic recognition, or internal defections could alter timelines within any specified resolution window.