Lebanon’s parliament voted in March 2026 to postpone the elections originally set for May by two years, citing the renewed Israel-Hezbollah war and resulting displacement and security disruptions. This extension has left the contest wide open, with trader odds spread thinly across more than twenty lists because no single bloc commands a clear path to the largest share of the 128 seats under the country’s sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement edges the field mainly due to its established Shiite organizational base, while Christian parties remain divided among Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, and Free Patriotic Movement factions. Hezbollah’s recent battlefield losses and the ongoing conflict have further fragmented support, preventing any grouping from consolidating the decisive alliances needed to secure an outright plurality before the rescheduled 2028 vote.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트아말 운동 (아말) 5.7%
레바논군 (LF) 2.6%
헤즈볼라 (헤즈브) 2.3%
마라다 운동 (MM) 1.9%
$529,978 거래량
$529,978 거래량
2026.05.31
아말 운동 (아말)
6%
레바논군 (LF)
3%
헤즈볼라 (헤즈브)
2%
마라다 운동 (MM)
2%
자유애국운동 (FPM)
2%
타카돔당
1%
이슬람 자선 사업 협회 (ICPA)
1%
ReLebanon
1%
와타니 연합 (와타니)
1%
전국자유당 (NLP)
1%
연합당 (UP)
1%
카타에브당 (카타에브)
1%
국민 나세리스트 조직 (PNO)
1%
이슬람 그룹 (IG)
<1%
국가대화당 (NDP)
<1%
아르메니아 혁명 연맹 (ARF)
<1%
마다당 (마다)
<1%
라나 – 사회민주당 (Lana)
<1%
레바논 아랍 사회주의 바트당 (바트당)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
진보사회당(PSP)
<1%
독립운동(IM)
<1%
존엄 운동(DM)
<1%
아말 운동 (아말) 5.7%
레바논군 (LF) 2.6%
헤즈볼라 (헤즈브) 2.3%
마라다 운동 (MM) 1.9%
$529,978 거래량
$529,978 거래량
2026.05.31
아말 운동 (아말)
$53,618 거래량
6%
레바논군 (LF)
$157,895 거래량
3%
헤즈볼라 (헤즈브)
$44,008 거래량
2%
마라다 운동 (MM)
$3,520 거래량
2%
자유애국운동 (FPM)
$74,183 거래량
2%
타카돔당
$5,814 거래량
1%
이슬람 자선 사업 협회 (ICPA)
$4,198 거래량
1%
ReLebanon
$2,997 거래량
1%
와타니 연합 (와타니)
$4,533 거래량
1%
전국자유당 (NLP)
$4,935 거래량
1%
연합당 (UP)
$3,226 거래량
1%
카타에브당 (카타에브)
$3,996 거래량
1%
국민 나세리스트 조직 (PNO)
$4,469 거래량
1%
이슬람 그룹 (IG)
$3,585 거래량
<1%
국가대화당 (NDP)
$41,888 거래량
<1%
아르메니아 혁명 연맹 (ARF)
$5,112 거래량
<1%
마다당 (마다)
$24,363 거래량
<1%
라나 – 사회민주당 (Lana)
$4,440 거래량
<1%
레바논 아랍 사회주의 바트당 (바트당)
$6,562 거래량
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$3,329 거래량
<1%
진보사회당(PSP)
$47,456 거래량
<1%
독립운동(IM)
$3,135 거래량
<1%
존엄 운동(DM)
$22,716 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon’s parliament voted in March 2026 to postpone the elections originally set for May by two years, citing the renewed Israel-Hezbollah war and resulting displacement and security disruptions. This extension has left the contest wide open, with trader odds spread thinly across more than twenty lists because no single bloc commands a clear path to the largest share of the 128 seats under the country’s sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement edges the field mainly due to its established Shiite organizational base, while Christian parties remain divided among Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, and Free Patriotic Movement factions. Hezbollah’s recent battlefield losses and the ongoing conflict have further fragmented support, preventing any grouping from consolidating the decisive alliances needed to secure an outright plurality before the rescheduled 2028 vote.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
거래량
$529,978종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon’s parliament voted in March 2026 to postpone the elections originally set for May by two years, citing the renewed Israel-Hezbollah war and resulting displacement and security disruptions. This extension has left the contest wide open, with trader odds spread thinly across more than twenty lists because no single bloc commands a clear path to the largest share of the 128 seats under the country’s sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement edges the field mainly due to its established Shiite organizational base, while Christian parties remain divided among Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, and Free Patriotic Movement factions. Hezbollah’s recent battlefield losses and the ongoing conflict have further fragmented support, preventing any grouping from consolidating the decisive alliances needed to secure an outright plurality before the rescheduled 2028 vote.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
거래량
$529,978종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon’s parliament voted in March 2026 to postpone the elections originally set for May by two years, citing the renewed Israel-Hezbollah war and resulting displacement and security disruptions. This extension has left the contest wide open, with trader odds spread thinly across more than twenty lists because no single bloc commands a clear path to the largest share of the 128 seats under the country’s sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement edges the field mainly due to its established Shiite organizational base, while Christian parties remain divided among Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, and Free Patriotic Movement factions. Hezbollah’s recent battlefield losses and the ongoing conflict have further fragmented support, preventing any grouping from consolidating the decisive alliances needed to secure an outright plurality before the rescheduled 2028 vote.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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