Trader consensus at 72.5% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end stems from the lack of acute diplomatic crises that historically trigger such persona non grata actions. Recent tensions, including March summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct bilateral engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier this year produced no reciprocal expulsions, consistent with patterns where formal breaks require events such as espionage allegations or military invasions. Middle East ceasefire negotiations and scattered African policy frictions continue as variables, yet no scheduled votes, summits, or confirmed escalations point to expulsion before December 31.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$15,172 거래량
$15,172 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$15,172 거래량
$15,172 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus at 72.5% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end stems from the lack of acute diplomatic crises that historically trigger such persona non grata actions. Recent tensions, including March summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct bilateral engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier this year produced no reciprocal expulsions, consistent with patterns where formal breaks require events such as espionage allegations or military invasions. Middle East ceasefire negotiations and scattered African policy frictions continue as variables, yet no scheduled votes, summits, or confirmed escalations point to expulsion before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
거래량
$15,172종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus at 72.5% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end stems from the lack of acute diplomatic crises that historically trigger such persona non grata actions. Recent tensions, including March summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct bilateral engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier this year produced no reciprocal expulsions, consistent with patterns where formal breaks require events such as espionage allegations or military invasions. Middle East ceasefire negotiations and scattered African policy frictions continue as variables, yet no scheduled votes, summits, or confirmed escalations point to expulsion before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$15,172종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 72.5% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end stems from the lack of acute diplomatic crises that historically trigger such persona non grata actions. Recent tensions, including March summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct bilateral engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier this year produced no reciprocal expulsions, consistent with patterns where formal breaks require events such as espionage allegations or military invasions. Middle East ceasefire negotiations and scattered African policy frictions continue as variables, yet no scheduled votes, summits, or confirmed escalations point to expulsion before December 31.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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