This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani and Qatari mediators remain stalled after President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," citing insufficient nuclear concessions amid disputes over sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and war reparations. Vice President JD Vance's recent meetings with Qatari officials signal back-channel progress, but Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed US "contradictory messages" today, underscoring persistent gaps. No qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting—deliberate, official, and publicly acknowledged—has occurred since April Islamabad talks, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities while pricing in higher chances by June amid economic pressures from the blockade, fragile ceasefire, and prospective Pakistani-hosted resumption post-Trump's China summit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani and Qatari mediators remain stalled after President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," citing insufficient nuclear concessions amid disputes over sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and war reparations. Vice President JD Vance's recent meetings with Qatari officials signal back-channel progress, but Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed US "contradictory messages" today, underscoring persistent gaps. No qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting—deliberate, official, and publicly acknowledged—has occurred since April Islamabad talks, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities while pricing in higher chances by June amid economic pressures from the blockade, fragile ceasefire, and prospective Pakistani-hosted resumption post-Trump's China summit.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 14 2026
Market reaches endpoint: Yes probability 0% for May‑15 meeting
May 15 dips to 0%2%
By the end of the analysis window, no credible diplomatic progress had occurred, leaving the market at zero confidence for a meeting before May 15.
May 12 2026
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
May 12 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
May 12 2026
Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran will not negotiate until U.S. lifts blockade
June 30 dips to 60%3%
The statement underscored a stalemate, coinciding with the lowest points for the May‑31 and June‑30 outcomes as market participants priced in a low probability of a meeting.
May 12 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
May 10 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
May 10 2026
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings before May 31. This contributed to further declines in market probabilities for near-term meetings.
May 8 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
May 7 2026
U.S. announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of the Strait, then pauses effort
May 31 drops to 38%6%
The mixed signals about reopening the strait further eroded confidence in any near‑term diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price down further.
May 2 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
May 1 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 12%6%
The direct military action heightened the risk of escalation, causing a sharp drop in the May‑15 price as traders saw diplomatic engagement receding.
Apr 30 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 38%7%
The seizure was viewed as a provocative act that further reduced expectations of a diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price from 45% to 38% the following day.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it unsatisfactory
May 31 drops to 49%6%
The president’s dismissal of Iran’s offer reduced optimism that a meeting would be scheduled, contributing to the continued decline of the May‑31 price.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks as Iran's top diplomat leaves Islamabad
May 15 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan abruptly and President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for follow-up talks, signaling a breakdown in planned direct negotiations. This caused a sharp drop in market confidence for May 15 and May 31 meeting dates.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Apr 23 2026
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan’s army chief meets Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran to discuss US‑Iran talks
May 15 drops to 70%9%
The meeting signaled a possible diplomatic channel but produced no concrete agreement, coinciding with a price dip for the May‑15 outcome as traders saw no imminent meeting.
Apr 21 2026
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani and Qatari mediators remain stalled after President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," citing insufficient nuclear concessions amid disputes over sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and war reparations. Vice President JD Vance's recent meetings with Qatari officials signal back-channel progress, but Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed US "contradictory messages" today, underscoring persistent gaps. No qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting—deliberate, official, and publicly acknowledged—has occurred since April Islamabad talks, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities while pricing in higher chances by June amid economic pressures from the blockade, fragile ceasefire, and prospective Pakistani-hosted resumption post-Trump's China summit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani and Qatari mediators remain stalled after President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," citing insufficient nuclear concessions amid disputes over sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and war reparations. Vice President JD Vance's recent meetings with Qatari officials signal back-channel progress, but Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed US "contradictory messages" today, underscoring persistent gaps. No qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting—deliberate, official, and publicly acknowledged—has occurred since April Islamabad talks, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities while pricing in higher chances by June amid economic pressures from the blockade, fragile ceasefire, and prospective Pakistani-hosted resumption post-Trump's China summit.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 14 2026
Market reaches endpoint: Yes probability 0% for May‑15 meeting
May 15 dips to 0%2%
By the end of the analysis window, no credible diplomatic progress had occurred, leaving the market at zero confidence for a meeting before May 15.
May 12 2026
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
May 12 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
May 12 2026
Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran will not negotiate until U.S. lifts blockade
June 30 dips to 60%3%
The statement underscored a stalemate, coinciding with the lowest points for the May‑31 and June‑30 outcomes as market participants priced in a low probability of a meeting.
May 12 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
May 10 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
May 10 2026
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings before May 31. This contributed to further declines in market probabilities for near-term meetings.
May 8 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
May 7 2026
U.S. announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of the Strait, then pauses effort
May 31 drops to 38%6%
The mixed signals about reopening the strait further eroded confidence in any near‑term diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price down further.
May 2 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
May 1 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 12%6%
The direct military action heightened the risk of escalation, causing a sharp drop in the May‑15 price as traders saw diplomatic engagement receding.
Apr 30 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 38%7%
The seizure was viewed as a provocative act that further reduced expectations of a diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price from 45% to 38% the following day.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it unsatisfactory
May 31 drops to 49%6%
The president’s dismissal of Iran’s offer reduced optimism that a meeting would be scheduled, contributing to the continued decline of the May‑31 price.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks as Iran's top diplomat leaves Islamabad
May 15 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan abruptly and President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for follow-up talks, signaling a breakdown in planned direct negotiations. This caused a sharp drop in market confidence for May 15 and May 31 meeting dates.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Apr 23 2026
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan’s army chief meets Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran to discuss US‑Iran talks
May 15 drops to 70%9%
The meeting signaled a possible diplomatic channel but produced no concrete agreement, coinciding with a price dip for the May‑15 outcome as traders saw no imminent meeting.
Apr 21 2026
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
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자주 묻는 질문
"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"은 20개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 57%의 "6월 30일"이며, 이어서 26%의 "5월 31일"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 57¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 57%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"은 총 $36.2 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Apr 12, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 20개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"의 현재 유력 후보는 57%의 "6월 30일"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 57%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 26%의 "5월 31일"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"에 $36.2 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?" 마켓에서 "6월 30일"의 57¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "6월 30일"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 57%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 57¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 43¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?" 마켓의 예정 종료일이 지났지만 아직 공식적으로 정산되지 않았습니다. 종료일은 기초 이벤트가 발생하거나 알 수 있게 될 것으로 예상되는 시점을 나타냅니다. 거래가 중단되는 순간이 아닙니다. 마켓은 정산 프로세스를 통해 결과가 공식적으로 정산될 때까지 거래가 열려 있습니다. 마켓이 정산 대기 중인 동안에도 포지션을 매수, 매도, 종료할 수 있습니다. 정산 상태 추적기와 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에서 정산 타임라인에 대한 업데이트를 확인하세요.
"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 4,437개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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