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icon for 2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?
세계·외교 정책

2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?

icon for 2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?
세계·외교 정책

2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?

7 38.6%

8 30.9%

9 13.6%

11 3.7%

Polymarket

$1,249,526 거래량

7 38.6%

8 30.9%

9 13.6%

11 3.7%

Polymarket

$1,249,526 거래량

icon for 7

7

$11,298 거래량

39%

icon for 8

8

$106,917 거래량

31%

icon for 9

9

$16,760 거래량

14%

icon for 10

10

$14,961 거래량

2%

icon for 11

11

$18,145 거래량

4%

icon for 12

12

$33,610 거래량

1%

icon for 13

13

$84,660 거래량

2%

icon for 14

14

$137,977 거래량

1%

icon for 15+

15+

$121,016 거래량

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 7 countries at 39% and 8 at 31%, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes and drone strikes in seven nations so far in 2026—Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria—driven by the Trump administration's surge in counterterrorism operations and deterrence against Iran-backed militias and Houthi threats. The late February U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure marked the most recent major escalation, solidifying the seven-count amid ongoing AFRICOM operations in Somalia. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over potential new fronts like renewed Yemen actions or responses to Houthi Red Sea disruptions, with diplomatic tensions or terror incidents in the remaining seven months poised to tip toward 8 or higher.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,249,526
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 7 countries at 39% and 8 at 31%, reflecting confirmed U.S. airstrikes and drone strikes in seven nations so far in 2026—Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria—driven by the Trump administration's surge in counterterrorism operations and deterrence against Iran-backed militias and Houthi threats. The late February U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure marked the most recent major escalation, solidifying the seven-count amid ongoing AFRICOM operations in Somalia. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over potential new fronts like renewed Yemen actions or responses to Houthi Red Sea disruptions, with diplomatic tensions or terror incidents in the remaining seven months poised to tip toward 8 or higher.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,249,526
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?"은 16개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 39%의 "7"이며, 이어서 31%의 "8"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 39¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 39%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?"은 총 $1.2 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Nov 13, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 16개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?"의 현재 유력 후보는 39%의 "7"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 39%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 31%의 "8"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"2026년에 미국은 몇 개의 다른 국가에 대해 군사 행동을 취할 것인가?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.