Trader consensus reflects a 95.5% implied probability against China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations such as amphibious force massing or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine People's Liberation Army naval and air activities. U.S. intelligence in March assessed no commitment to a 2027 operation, while recent cross-strait diplomacy—including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping and Beijing's May 14 call to curb "Taiwan independence" platforms—signals sustained pressure short of escalation. Economic interdependence and U.S. deterrence bolster confidence, though scenarios like a sudden blockade, Taiwan Strait crisis, or shifts in U.S.-China summit outcomes could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$470,835 거래량
$470,835 거래량
2026.09.30
예
$470,835 거래량
$470,835 거래량
2026.09.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 95.5% implied probability against China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations such as amphibious force massing or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine People's Liberation Army naval and air activities. U.S. intelligence in March assessed no commitment to a 2027 operation, while recent cross-strait diplomacy—including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping and Beijing's May 14 call to curb "Taiwan independence" platforms—signals sustained pressure short of escalation. Economic interdependence and U.S. deterrence bolster confidence, though scenarios like a sudden blockade, Taiwan Strait crisis, or shifts in U.S.-China summit outcomes could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
거래량
$470,835종료일
2026.09.30마켓 개설일
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 95.5% implied probability against China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations such as amphibious force massing or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine People's Liberation Army naval and air activities. U.S. intelligence in March assessed no commitment to a 2027 operation, while recent cross-strait diplomacy—including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping and Beijing's May 14 call to curb "Taiwan independence" platforms—signals sustained pressure short of escalation. Economic interdependence and U.S. deterrence bolster confidence, though scenarios like a sudden blockade, Taiwan Strait crisis, or shifts in U.S.-China summit outcomes could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$470,835종료일
2026.09.30마켓 개설일
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 95.5% implied probability against China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations such as amphibious force massing or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine People's Liberation Army naval and air activities. U.S. intelligence in March assessed no commitment to a 2027 operation, while recent cross-strait diplomacy—including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping and Beijing's May 14 call to curb "Taiwan independence" platforms—signals sustained pressure short of escalation. Economic interdependence and U.S. deterrence bolster confidence, though scenarios like a sudden blockade, Taiwan Strait crisis, or shifts in U.S.-China summit outcomes could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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