The US-led “Project Freedom” operation launched on May 4, 2026, remains the dominant catalyst shaping naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces have blocked merchant traffic since late February amid the broader US-Israel conflict with Tehran. Multiple US guided-missile destroyers have already transited the strait under Central Command protection, while the UK pledged a destroyer plus supporting assets in mid-May; European capitals have largely declined similar requests, citing Iranian warnings that additional warships would inflate energy prices and complicate diplomacy. Shipping insurance premiums have surged and global oil-supply risk premiums remain elevated, with traders monitoring whether further allied deployments materialize before the May 31 resolution window closes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$974,781 거래량
2026.05.31
United Kingdom
4%
France
4%
Germany
2%
Italy
<1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
4%
Bahrain
4%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
5%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$974,781 거래량
United Kingdom
$155,571 거래량
4%
France
$90,768 거래량
4%
Germany
$158,641 거래량
2%
Italy
$73,958 거래량
<1%
Netherlands
$50,298 거래량
1%
Japan
$108,509 거래량
1%
Canada
$19,724 거래량
<1%
India
$4,449 거래량
2%
Greece
$18,111 거래량
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 거래량
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,254 거래량
2%
UAE
$2,764 거래량
4%
Bahrain
$18,194 거래량
4%
Qatar
$5,626 거래량
<1%
Kuwait
$1,101 거래량
5%
Oman
$4,498 거래량
1%
South Korea
$82,690 거래량
<1%
Australia
$72,042 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The US-led “Project Freedom” operation launched on May 4, 2026, remains the dominant catalyst shaping naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces have blocked merchant traffic since late February amid the broader US-Israel conflict with Tehran. Multiple US guided-missile destroyers have already transited the strait under Central Command protection, while the UK pledged a destroyer plus supporting assets in mid-May; European capitals have largely declined similar requests, citing Iranian warnings that additional warships would inflate energy prices and complicate diplomacy. Shipping insurance premiums have surged and global oil-supply risk premiums remain elevated, with traders monitoring whether further allied deployments materialize before the May 31 resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
마켓 개설일: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
거래량
$974,781종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The US-led “Project Freedom” operation launched on May 4, 2026, remains the dominant catalyst shaping naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces have blocked merchant traffic since late February amid the broader US-Israel conflict with Tehran. Multiple US guided-missile destroyers have already transited the strait under Central Command protection, while the UK pledged a destroyer plus supporting assets in mid-May; European capitals have largely declined similar requests, citing Iranian warnings that additional warships would inflate energy prices and complicate diplomacy. Shipping insurance premiums have surged and global oil-supply risk premiums remain elevated, with traders monitoring whether further allied deployments materialize before the May 31 resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
거래량
$974,781종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-led “Project Freedom” operation launched on May 4, 2026, remains the dominant catalyst shaping naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces have blocked merchant traffic since late February amid the broader US-Israel conflict with Tehran. Multiple US guided-missile destroyers have already transited the strait under Central Command protection, while the UK pledged a destroyer plus supporting assets in mid-May; European capitals have largely declined similar requests, citing Iranian warnings that additional warships would inflate energy prices and complicate diplomacy. Shipping insurance premiums have surged and global oil-supply risk premiums remain elevated, with traders monitoring whether further allied deployments materialize before the May 31 resolution window closes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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