Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the clear leader at 63.5% implied probability. Heightened security risks, Iranian-imposed transit protocols requiring vessel declarations and fees, and lingering mine threats have kept weekly crossings at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms, with recent data showing single-digit daily transits and only isolated movements by sanctioned or Chinese-linked vessels. U.S. efforts under Project Freedom were paused amid stalled de-escalation talks, while freight rates and energy prices reflect the resulting supply chain bottlenecks. Limited upticks remain possible if escort arrangements resume or exemptions expand, yet persistent regulatory and risk barriers support the current trader consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트20-39 65%
40-59 26%
60-79 4.7%
<20 5%
$77,481 거래량
$77,481 거래량
2026.05.17
<20
5%
20-39
65%
40-59
26%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 65%
40-59 26%
60-79 4.7%
<20 5%
$77,481 거래량
$77,481 거래량
2026.05.17
<20
$26,617 거래량
5%
20-39
$13,276 거래량
65%
40-59
$14,369 거래량
26%
60-79
$12,000 거래량
5%
80+
$11,418 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the clear leader at 63.5% implied probability. Heightened security risks, Iranian-imposed transit protocols requiring vessel declarations and fees, and lingering mine threats have kept weekly crossings at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms, with recent data showing single-digit daily transits and only isolated movements by sanctioned or Chinese-linked vessels. U.S. efforts under Project Freedom were paused amid stalled de-escalation talks, while freight rates and energy prices reflect the resulting supply chain bottlenecks. Limited upticks remain possible if escort arrangements resume or exemptions expand, yet persistent regulatory and risk barriers support the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
마켓 개설일: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
거래량
$77,481종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the clear leader at 63.5% implied probability. Heightened security risks, Iranian-imposed transit protocols requiring vessel declarations and fees, and lingering mine threats have kept weekly crossings at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms, with recent data showing single-digit daily transits and only isolated movements by sanctioned or Chinese-linked vessels. U.S. efforts under Project Freedom were paused amid stalled de-escalation talks, while freight rates and energy prices reflect the resulting supply chain bottlenecks. Limited upticks remain possible if escort arrangements resume or exemptions expand, yet persistent regulatory and risk barriers support the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
거래량
$77,481종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the clear leader at 63.5% implied probability. Heightened security risks, Iranian-imposed transit protocols requiring vessel declarations and fees, and lingering mine threats have kept weekly crossings at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms, with recent data showing single-digit daily transits and only isolated movements by sanctioned or Chinese-linked vessels. U.S. efforts under Project Freedom were paused amid stalled de-escalation talks, while freight rates and energy prices reflect the resulting supply chain bottlenecks. Limited upticks remain possible if escort arrangements resume or exemptions expand, yet persistent regulatory and risk barriers support the current trader consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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