Traders assign a 90.5% probability that the Kurdistan Regional Government will not declare independence from Iraq by December 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or diplomatic initiatives toward secession. Recent resumption of oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline in March 2026, coupled with ongoing negotiations over federal budget allocations and civil servant salaries, underscores continued economic integration with Baghdad rather than rupture. Internal political deadlock preventing full government formation in Erbil, combined with regional pressures from the Iran conflict and Baghdad’s enforcement of customs controls, further reinforces this stance. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath, which led to territorial losses and international isolation, continues to shape leadership caution, leaving no verifiable catalysts for a unilateral declaration in the current timeline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$52,589 거래량
$52,589 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$52,589 거래량
$52,589 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 90.5% probability that the Kurdistan Regional Government will not declare independence from Iraq by December 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or diplomatic initiatives toward secession. Recent resumption of oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline in March 2026, coupled with ongoing negotiations over federal budget allocations and civil servant salaries, underscores continued economic integration with Baghdad rather than rupture. Internal political deadlock preventing full government formation in Erbil, combined with regional pressures from the Iran conflict and Baghdad’s enforcement of customs controls, further reinforces this stance. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath, which led to territorial losses and international isolation, continues to shape leadership caution, leaving no verifiable catalysts for a unilateral declaration in the current timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
거래량
$52,589종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 90.5% probability that the Kurdistan Regional Government will not declare independence from Iraq by December 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or diplomatic initiatives toward secession. Recent resumption of oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline in March 2026, coupled with ongoing negotiations over federal budget allocations and civil servant salaries, underscores continued economic integration with Baghdad rather than rupture. Internal political deadlock preventing full government formation in Erbil, combined with regional pressures from the Iran conflict and Baghdad’s enforcement of customs controls, further reinforces this stance. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath, which led to territorial losses and international isolation, continues to shape leadership caution, leaving no verifiable catalysts for a unilateral declaration in the current timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$52,589종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 90.5% probability that the Kurdistan Regional Government will not declare independence from Iraq by December 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or diplomatic initiatives toward secession. Recent resumption of oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline in March 2026, coupled with ongoing negotiations over federal budget allocations and civil servant salaries, underscores continued economic integration with Baghdad rather than rupture. Internal political deadlock preventing full government formation in Erbil, combined with regional pressures from the Iran conflict and Baghdad’s enforcement of customs controls, further reinforces this stance. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath, which led to territorial losses and international isolation, continues to shape leadership caution, leaving no verifiable catalysts for a unilateral declaration in the current timeline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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