The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.46% as of May 12, 2026—its highest level since July 2025—driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% and sticky PPI data, compounded by energy inflation from Iran-related geopolitical tensions. A resilient labor market, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolsters trader consensus for limited Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeping the yield curve steepened and market-implied policy path higher for longer. Benchmark 30-year yields have pierced 5%, reflecting bond selloffs amid persistent inflation risks above the Fed's 2% target. Traders monitor the May CPI release on June 10 and the next FOMC meeting in late June for pivotal updates that could push yields toward 4.5% or higher before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$200,656 거래량
2026.12.31
4.5%
90%
4.6%
57%
4.8%
26%
5.0%
11%
5.2%
9%
5.5%
7%
5.7%
7%
6.0%
5%
$200,656 거래량
4.5%
$32,029 거래량
90%
4.6%
$36,287 거래량
57%
4.8%
$47,062 거래량
26%
5.0%
$42,981 거래량
11%
5.2%
$8,584 거래량
9%
5.5%
$1,448 거래량
7%
5.7%
$3,229 거래량
7%
6.0%
$2,070 거래량
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.46% as of May 12, 2026—its highest level since July 2025—driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% and sticky PPI data, compounded by energy inflation from Iran-related geopolitical tensions. A resilient labor market, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolsters trader consensus for limited Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeping the yield curve steepened and market-implied policy path higher for longer. Benchmark 30-year yields have pierced 5%, reflecting bond selloffs amid persistent inflation risks above the Fed's 2% target. Traders monitor the May CPI release on June 10 and the next FOMC meeting in late June for pivotal updates that could push yields toward 4.5% or higher before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
거래량
$200,656종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.46% as of May 12, 2026—its highest level since July 2025—driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% and sticky PPI data, compounded by energy inflation from Iran-related geopolitical tensions. A resilient labor market, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolsters trader consensus for limited Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeping the yield curve steepened and market-implied policy path higher for longer. Benchmark 30-year yields have pierced 5%, reflecting bond selloffs amid persistent inflation risks above the Fed's 2% target. Traders monitor the May CPI release on June 10 and the next FOMC meeting in late June for pivotal updates that could push yields toward 4.5% or higher before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
거래량
$200,656종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.46% as of May 12, 2026—its highest level since July 2025—driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% and sticky PPI data, compounded by energy inflation from Iran-related geopolitical tensions. A resilient labor market, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolsters trader consensus for limited Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeping the yield curve steepened and market-implied policy path higher for longer. Benchmark 30-year yields have pierced 5%, reflecting bond selloffs amid persistent inflation risks above the Fed's 2% target. Traders monitor the May CPI release on June 10 and the next FOMC meeting in late June for pivotal updates that could push yields toward 4.5% or higher before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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