Polymarket traders price a 58.7% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting consensus for no net policy easing amid hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—and a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs. The Federal Reserve held its 3.50%–3.75% target range unchanged for a third straight FOMC meeting in April, as core PCE pressures linger and energy prices rise, diminishing cut prospects per brokerages like Bank of America. Next catalysts include May CPI release and the June FOMC, where three-month average fed funds futures imply limited near-term shifts versus official dot-plot medians.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트3.75% 58.7%
4.0% 14.4%
3.25% 9%
3.5% 7%
$6,516,296 거래량
$6,516,296 거래량
2026.12.09
1.0% 이하
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
9%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
59%
4.0%
14%
4.25%
3%
≥ 4.5%
2%
3.75% 58.7%
4.0% 14.4%
3.25% 9%
3.5% 7%
$6,516,296 거래량
$6,516,296 거래량
2026.12.09
1.0% 이하
$215,845 거래량
<1%
1.25
$134,194 거래량
1%
1.5%
$133,952 거래량
<1%
1.75%
$133,843 거래량
1%
2.0%
$243,474 거래량
1%
2.25%
$70,680 거래량
1%
2.5%
$158,682 거래량
1%
2.75%
$45,857 거래량
1%
3.0%
$454,566 거래량
4%
3.25%
$51,316 거래량
9%
3.5%
$189,817 거래량
7%
3.75%
$517,672 거래량
59%
4.0%
$1,358,151 거래량
14%
4.25%
$412,699 거래량
3%
≥ 4.5%
$2,395,547 거래량
2%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 58.7% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting consensus for no net policy easing amid hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—and a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs. The Federal Reserve held its 3.50%–3.75% target range unchanged for a third straight FOMC meeting in April, as core PCE pressures linger and energy prices rise, diminishing cut prospects per brokerages like Bank of America. Next catalysts include May CPI release and the June FOMC, where three-month average fed funds futures imply limited near-term shifts versus official dot-plot medians.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
마켓 개설일: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
거래량
$6,516,296종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 58.7% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting consensus for no net policy easing amid hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—and a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs. The Federal Reserve held its 3.50%–3.75% target range unchanged for a third straight FOMC meeting in April, as core PCE pressures linger and energy prices rise, diminishing cut prospects per brokerages like Bank of America. Next catalysts include May CPI release and the June FOMC, where three-month average fed funds futures imply limited near-term shifts versus official dot-plot medians.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
거래량
$6,516,296종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 58.7% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting consensus for no net policy easing amid hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—and a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs. The Federal Reserve held its 3.50%–3.75% target range unchanged for a third straight FOMC meeting in April, as core PCE pressures linger and energy prices rise, diminishing cut prospects per brokerages like Bank of America. Next catalysts include May CPI release and the June FOMC, where three-month average fed funds futures imply limited near-term shifts versus official dot-plot medians.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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