Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트3.75% 31.7%
4.0% 22.7%
4.25% 17.0%
≥ 4.5% 10.1%
$6,644,905 거래량
$6,644,905 거래량
2026.12.09
1.0% 이하
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
2%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
32%
4.0%
23%
4.25%
17%
≥ 4.5%
10%
3.75% 31.7%
4.0% 22.7%
4.25% 17.0%
≥ 4.5% 10.1%
$6,644,905 거래량
$6,644,905 거래량
2026.12.09
1.0% 이하
$221,588 거래량
1%
1.25
$137,468 거래량
1%
1.5%
$142,925 거래량
1%
1.75%
$142,550 거래량
1%
2.0%
$255,763 거래량
<1%
2.25%
$80,620 거래량
1%
2.5%
$167,245 거래량
1%
2.75%
$55,585 거래량
1%
3.0%
$466,300 거래량
2%
3.25%
$58,462 거래량
1%
3.5%
$199,595 거래량
8%
3.75%
$525,378 거래량
32%
4.0%
$1,365,725 거래량
23%
4.25%
$421,886 거래량
17%
≥ 4.5%
$2,403,815 거래량
10%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
마켓 개설일: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
거래량
$6,644,905종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
거래량
$6,644,905종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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