Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid balanced risks. The March dot plot median projects 3.4% by year-end, envisioning no hikes and possibly one 25-basis-point cut, consistent with inflation's gradual disinflation trajectory toward 2%. Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with unemployment at 4.3% have lifted hike odds to 37% in bond futures and prediction markets, signaling reacceleration concerns. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI data will be pivotal catalysts for any sentiment shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,093,175 거래량
$1,093,175 거래량
2026.12.09
예
$1,093,175 거래량
$1,093,175 거래량
2026.12.09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid balanced risks. The March dot plot median projects 3.4% by year-end, envisioning no hikes and possibly one 25-basis-point cut, consistent with inflation's gradual disinflation trajectory toward 2%. Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with unemployment at 4.3% have lifted hike odds to 37% in bond futures and prediction markets, signaling reacceleration concerns. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI data will be pivotal catalysts for any sentiment shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
거래량
$1,093,175종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid balanced risks. The March dot plot median projects 3.4% by year-end, envisioning no hikes and possibly one 25-basis-point cut, consistent with inflation's gradual disinflation trajectory toward 2%. Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with unemployment at 4.3% have lifted hike odds to 37% in bond futures and prediction markets, signaling reacceleration concerns. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI data will be pivotal catalysts for any sentiment shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$1,093,180종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid balanced risks. The March dot plot median projects 3.4% by year-end, envisioning no hikes and possibly one 25-basis-point cut, consistent with inflation's gradual disinflation trajectory toward 2%. Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with unemployment at 4.3% have lifted hike odds to 37% in bond futures and prediction markets, signaling reacceleration concerns. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI data will be pivotal catalysts for any sentiment shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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