Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 95.9% implied probability against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, driven by the U.S. Justice Department's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe into Powell's handling of the Fed's headquarters renovation project—alleged cost overruns that never yielded charges or indictments. This closure, transferred to the Fed's inspector general for administrative review, eliminated the sole credible legal threat amid broader scrutiny of monetary policy independence under the Trump administration. With Powell's chair term expiring this month and no new investigations emerging, trader sentiment prices in negligible risk; tail scenarios include unforeseen inspector general findings or politically motivated post-tenure probes, though historical precedents for prosecuting ex-central bankers remain exceedingly rare.