Record low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, tied for the lowest in the satellite record per NSIDC data, combined with persistently near-record low spring extents through early May, has positioned the sub-4 million square kilometer minimum this September as the market favorite. Ongoing long-term decline averaging 12% per decade since 1979, driven by Arctic amplification and warmer ocean temperatures, leaves less ice to survive the melt season, while emerging El Niño conditions could further accelerate loss through altered atmospheric patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures. Traders weigh these factors against typical interannual variability in melt rates, with official NSIDC and NOAA monitoring updates through the summer peak expected to refine resolution probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트올여름 민북극 해빙 정도?
올여름 민북극 해빙 정도?
400만 제곱킬로미터 미만 53%
4.0~4.2백만 ㎢ 9.3%
420만~440만 제곱킬로미터 9.0%
440만~460만 제곱킬로미터 8.7%
$48,580 거래량
$48,580 거래량
2026.10.01
400만 제곱킬로미터 미만
53%
4.0~4.2백만 ㎢
9%
420만~440만 제곱킬로미터
15%
440만~460만 제곱킬로미터
9%
460만~480만 제곱킬로미터
6%
480-500만 제곱킬로미터
2%
500만+ 제곱킬로미터
4%
400만 제곱킬로미터 미만 53%
4.0~4.2백만 ㎢ 9.3%
420만~440만 제곱킬로미터 9.0%
440만~460만 제곱킬로미터 8.7%
$48,580 거래량
$48,580 거래량
2026.10.01
400만 제곱킬로미터 미만
$25,113 거래량
53%
4.0~4.2백만 ㎢
$3,431 거래량
9%
420만~440만 제곱킬로미터
$1,313 거래량
15%
440만~460만 제곱킬로미터
$1,381 거래량
9%
460만~480만 제곱킬로미터
$2,948 거래량
6%
480-500만 제곱킬로미터
$1,199 거래량
2%
500만+ 제곱킬로미터
$13,195 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, tied for the lowest in the satellite record per NSIDC data, combined with persistently near-record low spring extents through early May, has positioned the sub-4 million square kilometer minimum this September as the market favorite. Ongoing long-term decline averaging 12% per decade since 1979, driven by Arctic amplification and warmer ocean temperatures, leaves less ice to survive the melt season, while emerging El Niño conditions could further accelerate loss through altered atmospheric patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures. Traders weigh these factors against typical interannual variability in melt rates, with official NSIDC and NOAA monitoring updates through the summer peak expected to refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
마켓 개설일: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
거래량
$48,580종료일
2026.10.01마켓 개설일
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, tied for the lowest in the satellite record per NSIDC data, combined with persistently near-record low spring extents through early May, has positioned the sub-4 million square kilometer minimum this September as the market favorite. Ongoing long-term decline averaging 12% per decade since 1979, driven by Arctic amplification and warmer ocean temperatures, leaves less ice to survive the melt season, while emerging El Niño conditions could further accelerate loss through altered atmospheric patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures. Traders weigh these factors against typical interannual variability in melt rates, with official NSIDC and NOAA monitoring updates through the summer peak expected to refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
거래량
$48,580종료일
2026.10.01마켓 개설일
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, tied for the lowest in the satellite record per NSIDC data, combined with persistently near-record low spring extents through early May, has positioned the sub-4 million square kilometer minimum this September as the market favorite. Ongoing long-term decline averaging 12% per decade since 1979, driven by Arctic amplification and warmer ocean temperatures, leaves less ice to survive the melt season, while emerging El Niño conditions could further accelerate loss through altered atmospheric patterns and elevated sea surface temperatures. Traders weigh these factors against typical interannual variability in melt rates, with official NSIDC and NOAA monitoring updates through the summer peak expected to refine resolution probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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