Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 24%
4.0-4.2m sq km 20.5%
4.2-4.4m sq km 16.2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 9.0%
$58,807 거래량
$58,807 거래량
2026.10.01
<4m sq km
24%
4.0-4.2m sq km
20%
4.2-4.4m sq km
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
9%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
7%
5m+ sq km
3%
<4m sq km 24%
4.0-4.2m sq km 20.5%
4.2-4.4m sq km 16.2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 9.0%
$58,807 거래량
$58,807 거래량
2026.10.01
<4m sq km
$28,490 거래량
24%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$5,393 거래량
20%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,106 거래량
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$2,277 거래량
9%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$4,114 거래량
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,261 거래량
7%
5m+ sq km
$14,165 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
마켓 개설일: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
거래량
$58,807종료일
2026.10.01마켓 개설일
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
거래량
$58,807종료일
2026.10.01마켓 개설일
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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