Polymarket traders price a tight contest among S&P 500 year-end 2026 bins, with the $7,000-$7,500 range leading at 26% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus for modest gains or mild pullback from the index's recent close near 7,444 amid frothy valuations above 7,100 flagged by Goldman Sachs. Strong Q1 earnings momentum and FactSet's 17-21% calendar 2026 earnings growth forecast support upside into $7,500-$8,000 (23%), but steady Fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—held amid April's 4.3% unemployment and persistent inflation pressures from Middle East tensions—caps aggressive rallies, differentiating lower bins on potential policy delays. Key swings hinge on June 10 CPI data and Q2 earnings season.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500~$8,000 17%
$6,000~$6,500 16%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
$25,377 거래량
$25,377 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
14%
$6,000~$6,500
16%
$6,500-$7,000
23%
$7,000-$7,500
27%
$7,500~$8,000
23%
8,000달러 이상
23%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500~$8,000 17%
$6,000~$6,500 16%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
$25,377 거래량
$25,377 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
$15,544 거래량
14%
$6,000~$6,500
$1,479 거래량
16%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,389 거래량
23%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 거래량
27%
$7,500~$8,000
$2,554 거래량
23%
8,000달러 이상
$2,298 거래량
23%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a tight contest among S&P 500 year-end 2026 bins, with the $7,000-$7,500 range leading at 26% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus for modest gains or mild pullback from the index's recent close near 7,444 amid frothy valuations above 7,100 flagged by Goldman Sachs. Strong Q1 earnings momentum and FactSet's 17-21% calendar 2026 earnings growth forecast support upside into $7,500-$8,000 (23%), but steady Fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—held amid April's 4.3% unemployment and persistent inflation pressures from Middle East tensions—caps aggressive rallies, differentiating lower bins on potential policy delays. Key swings hinge on June 10 CPI data and Q2 earnings season.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
거래량
$25,377종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a tight contest among S&P 500 year-end 2026 bins, with the $7,000-$7,500 range leading at 26% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus for modest gains or mild pullback from the index's recent close near 7,444 amid frothy valuations above 7,100 flagged by Goldman Sachs. Strong Q1 earnings momentum and FactSet's 17-21% calendar 2026 earnings growth forecast support upside into $7,500-$8,000 (23%), but steady Fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—held amid April's 4.3% unemployment and persistent inflation pressures from Middle East tensions—caps aggressive rallies, differentiating lower bins on potential policy delays. Key swings hinge on June 10 CPI data and Q2 earnings season.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
거래량
$25,377종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders price a tight contest among S&P 500 year-end 2026 bins, with the $7,000-$7,500 range leading at 26% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus for modest gains or mild pullback from the index's recent close near 7,444 amid frothy valuations above 7,100 flagged by Goldman Sachs. Strong Q1 earnings momentum and FactSet's 17-21% calendar 2026 earnings growth forecast support upside into $7,500-$8,000 (23%), but steady Fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—held amid April's 4.3% unemployment and persistent inflation pressures from Middle East tensions—caps aggressive rallies, differentiating lower bins on potential policy delays. Key swings hinge on June 10 CPI data and Q2 earnings season.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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