Carlos Ulberg captured the UFC light heavyweight title with a first-round KO over Jiří Procházka at UFC 327 on April 11, but underwent knee surgery shortly after, sidelining the new champion for roughly nine months and delaying his first defense into late 2026. This uncertainty fuels the tight trader consensus, with Bogdan Guskov edging at 50% implied probability after his recent majority draw versus Jan Blachowicz, keeping him active amid the latter's injury absence. Paulo Costa's momentum from a TKO win over Azamat Murzakanov on the same card vaults him to 49.5%, while top-ranked Magomed Ankalaev and former champ Blachowicz—whom Ulberg decisioned earlier—hover at 48%, reflecting evenly matched stylistic clashes and rankings-driven title contention in a fluid division.