Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 80% implied probability that the US general fertility rate will not exceed the Q4 2025 baseline of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by provisional CDC data showing a relentless downward trajectory. The April 2026 release confirmed 2025's annual rate at a record-low 53.1, down 1% from 2024, capping two decades of declines amid economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and teen birth drops. Preliminary January 2026 births fell 4.8% year-over-year, with February down 2.15%, signaling no rebound into Q1. Traders eye the upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release quarterly estimate, typically out within months, as the key catalyst—though historical patterns suggest scant chance of an upset surge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 80% implied probability that the US general fertility rate will not exceed the Q4 2025 baseline of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by provisional CDC data showing a relentless downward trajectory. The April 2026 release confirmed 2025's annual rate at a record-low 53.1, down 1% from 2024, capping two decades of declines amid economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and teen birth drops. Preliminary January 2026 births fell 4.8% year-over-year, with February down 2.15%, signaling no rebound into Q1. Traders eye the upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release quarterly estimate, typically out within months, as the key catalyst—though historical patterns suggest scant chance of an upset surge.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
거래량
$72종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 80% implied probability that the US general fertility rate will not exceed the Q4 2025 baseline of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by provisional CDC data showing a relentless downward trajectory. The April 2026 release confirmed 2025's annual rate at a record-low 53.1, down 1% from 2024, capping two decades of declines amid economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and teen birth drops. Preliminary January 2026 births fell 4.8% year-over-year, with February down 2.15%, signaling no rebound into Q1. Traders eye the upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release quarterly estimate, typically out within months, as the key catalyst—though historical patterns suggest scant chance of an upset surge.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
거래량
$72종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 80% implied probability that the US general fertility rate will not exceed the Q4 2025 baseline of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by provisional CDC data showing a relentless downward trajectory. The April 2026 release confirmed 2025's annual rate at a record-low 53.1, down 1% from 2024, capping two decades of declines amid economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and teen birth drops. Preliminary January 2026 births fell 4.8% year-over-year, with February down 2.15%, signaling no rebound into Q1. Traders eye the upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release quarterly estimate, typically out within months, as the key catalyst—though historical patterns suggest scant chance of an upset surge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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