Anthropic commands a 72.4% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the #1 spot with a 1503 Elo score as of mid-May. Released April 16, this large language model outperforms prior versions and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant (launched May 5) and Google's Gemini 3.1 in agentic tasks, coding, and reasoning benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration—major updates every two months amid fierce competition. Google trails at 16% on hints of imminent Gemini upgrades post-I/O, while OpenAI's 8% share tempers recent gains amid pricing pressures. Traders eye late-June releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in volatile AI races.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트앤트로픽 72.4%
구글 17%
오픈AI 8%
xAI 2.5%
$5,766,429 거래량
$5,766,429 거래량
2026.06.30
앤트로픽
72%
구글
17%
오픈AI
8%
xAI
2%
메타
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
아마존
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
알리바바
<1%
문샷
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
미투안
<1%
바이두
<1%
앤트로픽 72.4%
구글 17%
오픈AI 8%
xAI 2.5%
$5,766,429 거래량
$5,766,429 거래량
2026.06.30
앤트로픽
$823,340 거래량
72%
구글
$503,234 거래량
17%
오픈AI
$330,115 거래량
8%
xAI
$1,053,484 거래량
2%
메타
$127,160 거래량
1%
DeepSeek
$493,047 거래량
<1%
아마존
$153,508 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$293,269 거래량
<1%
알리바바
$360,397 거래량
<1%
문샷
$350,769 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$462,676 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$143,766 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$149,069 거래량
<1%
미투안
$371,283 거래량
<1%
바이두
$151,745 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 72.4% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the #1 spot with a 1503 Elo score as of mid-May. Released April 16, this large language model outperforms prior versions and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant (launched May 5) and Google's Gemini 3.1 in agentic tasks, coding, and reasoning benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration—major updates every two months amid fierce competition. Google trails at 16% on hints of imminent Gemini upgrades post-I/O, while OpenAI's 8% share tempers recent gains amid pricing pressures. Traders eye late-June releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in volatile AI races.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$5,766,429종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 72.4% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the #1 spot with a 1503 Elo score as of mid-May. Released April 16, this large language model outperforms prior versions and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant (launched May 5) and Google's Gemini 3.1 in agentic tasks, coding, and reasoning benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration—major updates every two months amid fierce competition. Google trails at 16% on hints of imminent Gemini upgrades post-I/O, while OpenAI's 8% share tempers recent gains amid pricing pressures. Traders eye late-June releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in volatile AI races.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$5,766,429종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 72.4% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the #1 spot with a 1503 Elo score as of mid-May. Released April 16, this large language model outperforms prior versions and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant (launched May 5) and Google's Gemini 3.1 in agentic tasks, coding, and reasoning benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration—major updates every two months amid fierce competition. Google trails at 16% on hints of imminent Gemini upgrades post-I/O, while OpenAI's 8% share tempers recent gains amid pricing pressures. Traders eye late-June releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in volatile AI races.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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