Current leaderboard trends and scaling patterns indicate that no large language model is positioned to reach the 1550 Elo threshold on Chatbot Arena before the end of 2026, which accounts for the dominant market-implied odds on that outcome. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among individual labs through its recent releases emphasizing advanced reasoning and consistent high rankings in blind human evaluations. Google and OpenAI follow with lower probabilities, reflecting more incremental benchmark gains and extended development cycles that have not produced the required acceleration. Upcoming model updates from these companies could shift trajectories, yet historical progress rates and evaluation volatility make a 2026 breakthrough unlikely without unexpected capability leaps.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년에 없음 57%
Anthropic 33%
구글 11%
OpenAI 2.0%
$54,452 거래량
$54,452 거래량
2026.12.31
2026년에 없음
57%
Anthropic
33%
구글
11%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
2%
미스트랄
<1%
딥시크
<1%
알리바바
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026년에 없음 57%
Anthropic 33%
구글 11%
OpenAI 2.0%
$54,452 거래량
$54,452 거래량
2026.12.31
2026년에 없음
$10,084 거래량
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 거래량
33%
구글
$7,388 거래량
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 거래량
2%
xAI
$5,414 거래량
2%
미스트랄
$3,688 거래량
<1%
딥시크
$4,795 거래량
<1%
알리바바
$4,750 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends and scaling patterns indicate that no large language model is positioned to reach the 1550 Elo threshold on Chatbot Arena before the end of 2026, which accounts for the dominant market-implied odds on that outcome. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among individual labs through its recent releases emphasizing advanced reasoning and consistent high rankings in blind human evaluations. Google and OpenAI follow with lower probabilities, reflecting more incremental benchmark gains and extended development cycles that have not produced the required acceleration. Upcoming model updates from these companies could shift trajectories, yet historical progress rates and evaluation volatility make a 2026 breakthrough unlikely without unexpected capability leaps.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
거래량
$54,452종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends and scaling patterns indicate that no large language model is positioned to reach the 1550 Elo threshold on Chatbot Arena before the end of 2026, which accounts for the dominant market-implied odds on that outcome. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among individual labs through its recent releases emphasizing advanced reasoning and consistent high rankings in blind human evaluations. Google and OpenAI follow with lower probabilities, reflecting more incremental benchmark gains and extended development cycles that have not produced the required acceleration. Upcoming model updates from these companies could shift trajectories, yet historical progress rates and evaluation volatility make a 2026 breakthrough unlikely without unexpected capability leaps.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
거래량
$54,452종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current leaderboard trends and scaling patterns indicate that no large language model is positioned to reach the 1550 Elo threshold on Chatbot Arena before the end of 2026, which accounts for the dominant market-implied odds on that outcome. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among individual labs through its recent releases emphasizing advanced reasoning and consistent high rankings in blind human evaluations. Google and OpenAI follow with lower probabilities, reflecting more incremental benchmark gains and extended development cycles that have not produced the required acceleration. Upcoming model updates from these companies could shift trajectories, yet historical progress rates and evaluation volatility make a 2026 breakthrough unlikely without unexpected capability leaps.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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