**Trader sentiment strongly favors "None in 2026" at 74.5% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered below 1525 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 4.8 Thinking variants top the board around 1508–1510 overall, with specialized arena peaks near 1566, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5-high sits comparably at ~1506; these incremental gains from prior Opus 4.6/4.7 releases have narrowed but not closed the gap to 1550. Google, xAI, and others trail further behind, reflecting slower progress on the capability jumps needed for such an ELO threshold amid typical product timelines and benchmark volatility. With six months left, the market-implied odds highlight the difficulty of rapid scaling without confirmed breakthroughs, positioning Anthropic as the clearest near-term contender at 15.5%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트None in 2026 78%
Anthropic 15%
Google 5.0%
OpenAI 3.4%
$104,603 거래량
$104,603 거래량
2026.12.31
None in 2026
78%
Anthropic
15%
5%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 78%
Anthropic 15%
Google 5.0%
OpenAI 3.4%
$104,603 거래량
$104,603 거래량
2026.12.31
None in 2026
$22,342 거래량
78%
Anthropic
$11,382 거래량
15%
$10,486 거래량
5%
OpenAI
$12,744 거래량
3%
xAI
$8,360 거래량
1%
DeepSeek
$11,145 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$8,721 거래량
<1%
Alibaba
$10,283 거래량
<1%
Mistral
$9,141 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader sentiment strongly favors "None in 2026" at 74.5% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered below 1525 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 4.8 Thinking variants top the board around 1508–1510 overall, with specialized arena peaks near 1566, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5-high sits comparably at ~1506; these incremental gains from prior Opus 4.6/4.7 releases have narrowed but not closed the gap to 1550.
Google, xAI, and others trail further behind, reflecting slower progress on the capability jumps needed for such an ELO threshold amid typical product timelines and benchmark volatility. With six months left, the market-implied odds highlight the difficulty of rapid scaling without confirmed breakthroughs, positioning Anthropic as the clearest near-term contender at 15.5%.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
거래량
$104,603종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader sentiment strongly favors "None in 2026" at 74.5% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered below 1525 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 4.8 Thinking variants top the board around 1508–1510 overall, with specialized arena peaks near 1566, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5-high sits comparably at ~1506; these incremental gains from prior Opus 4.6/4.7 releases have narrowed but not closed the gap to 1550.
Google, xAI, and others trail further behind, reflecting slower progress on the capability jumps needed for such an ELO threshold amid typical product timelines and benchmark volatility. With six months left, the market-implied odds highlight the difficulty of rapid scaling without confirmed breakthroughs, positioning Anthropic as the clearest near-term contender at 15.5%.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
거래량
$104,603종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment strongly favors "None in 2026" at 74.5% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered below 1525 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 4.8 Thinking variants top the board around 1508–1510 overall, with specialized arena peaks near 1566, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5-high sits comparably at ~1506; these incremental gains from prior Opus 4.6/4.7 releases have narrowed but not closed the gap to 1550. Google, xAI, and others trail further behind, reflecting slower progress on the capability jumps needed for such an ELO threshold amid typical product timelines and benchmark volatility. With six months left, the market-implied odds highlight the difficulty of rapid scaling without confirmed breakthroughs, positioning Anthropic as the clearest near-term contender at 15.5%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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