Avengers: Doomsday commands a 72.5% implied probability in the market because its status as the next major Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover positions it for the kind of opening-weekend dominance historically seen with Avengers titles. Strong pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and broad audience anticipation continue to anchor trader consensus around this outcome. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% on the strength of its lead character’s consistent box-office appeal, though it trails the larger-scale event film. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu register in the low single digits, reflecting solid brand loyalty but narrower expectations for record-breaking debuts. Marketing pushes and any early box-office comps released over the next several months remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the 2026 release slate.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년 개봉 주말이 가장 큰 영화는?
2026년 개봉 주말이 가장 큰 영화는?
어벤져스: 둠스데이 73%
스파이더맨: 브랜뉴 데이 18%
토이 스토리 5 3.1%
오디세이(The Odyssey) 2.5%
$1,571,780 거래량
$1,571,780 거래량
2026.12.31
어벤져스: 둠스데이
73%
스파이더맨: 브랜뉴 데이
18%
토이 스토리 5
3%
오디세이(The Odyssey)
2%
듄: 메시아
2%
스타워즈: 더 만달로리안과 그로구
1%
헝거게임: 썬라이즈 온 더 리핑
<1%
수퍼 마리오 갤럭시 영화
<1%
어벤져스: 둠스데이 73%
스파이더맨: 브랜뉴 데이 18%
토이 스토리 5 3.1%
오디세이(The Odyssey) 2.5%
$1,571,780 거래량
$1,571,780 거래량
2026.12.31
어벤져스: 둠스데이
$118,995 거래량
73%
스파이더맨: 브랜뉴 데이
$43,480 거래량
18%
토이 스토리 5
$181,713 거래량
3%
오디세이(The Odyssey)
$146,997 거래량
2%
듄: 메시아
$85,190 거래량
2%
스타워즈: 더 만달로리안과 그로구
$34,991 거래량
1%
헝거게임: 썬라이즈 온 더 리핑
$59,114 거래량
<1%
수퍼 마리오 갤럭시 영화
$18,306 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands a 72.5% implied probability in the market because its status as the next major Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover positions it for the kind of opening-weekend dominance historically seen with Avengers titles. Strong pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and broad audience anticipation continue to anchor trader consensus around this outcome. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% on the strength of its lead character’s consistent box-office appeal, though it trails the larger-scale event film. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu register in the low single digits, reflecting solid brand loyalty but narrower expectations for record-breaking debuts. Marketing pushes and any early box-office comps released over the next several months remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the 2026 release slate.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$1,571,780종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands a 72.5% implied probability in the market because its status as the next major Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover positions it for the kind of opening-weekend dominance historically seen with Avengers titles. Strong pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and broad audience anticipation continue to anchor trader consensus around this outcome. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% on the strength of its lead character’s consistent box-office appeal, though it trails the larger-scale event film. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu register in the low single digits, reflecting solid brand loyalty but narrower expectations for record-breaking debuts. Marketing pushes and any early box-office comps released over the next several months remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the 2026 release slate.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
거래량
$1,571,780종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Avengers: Doomsday commands a 72.5% implied probability in the market because its status as the next major Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover positions it for the kind of opening-weekend dominance historically seen with Avengers titles. Strong pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and broad audience anticipation continue to anchor trader consensus around this outcome. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% on the strength of its lead character’s consistent box-office appeal, though it trails the larger-scale event film. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu register in the low single digits, reflecting solid brand loyalty but narrower expectations for record-breaking debuts. Marketing pushes and any early box-office comps released over the next several months remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the 2026 release slate.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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