Recent preseason forecasts from Colorado State University (April 2026) and others project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale), driven by a transition from weak La Niña to moderate or strong El Niño conditions that will increase vertical wind shear and hinder storm development. This aligns with trader consensus implying a 60.5% probability of no Category 4 landfall (sustained winds 130–156 mph) on the continental U.S. before 2027, following three consecutive years (2023–2025) without such an event despite historical averages near 30–40% for majors overall. Warmer western Atlantic sea surface temperatures offer some intensification potential, but El Niño dominance tempers odds; watch NOAA's full outlook on May 21 and National Hurricane Center updates as the June 1–November 30 season nears.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$327,016 거래량
$327,016 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$327,016 거래량
$327,016 거래량
2026.12.31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent preseason forecasts from Colorado State University (April 2026) and others project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale), driven by a transition from weak La Niña to moderate or strong El Niño conditions that will increase vertical wind shear and hinder storm development. This aligns with trader consensus implying a 60.5% probability of no Category 4 landfall (sustained winds 130–156 mph) on the continental U.S. before 2027, following three consecutive years (2023–2025) without such an event despite historical averages near 30–40% for majors overall. Warmer western Atlantic sea surface temperatures offer some intensification potential, but El Niño dominance tempers odds; watch NOAA's full outlook on May 21 and National Hurricane Center updates as the June 1–November 30 season nears.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
거래량
$327,016종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent preseason forecasts from Colorado State University (April 2026) and others project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale), driven by a transition from weak La Niña to moderate or strong El Niño conditions that will increase vertical wind shear and hinder storm development. This aligns with trader consensus implying a 60.5% probability of no Category 4 landfall (sustained winds 130–156 mph) on the continental U.S. before 2027, following three consecutive years (2023–2025) without such an event despite historical averages near 30–40% for majors overall. Warmer western Atlantic sea surface temperatures offer some intensification potential, but El Niño dominance tempers odds; watch NOAA's full outlook on May 21 and National Hurricane Center updates as the June 1–November 30 season nears.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
거래량
$327,016종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent preseason forecasts from Colorado State University (April 2026) and others project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale), driven by a transition from weak La Niña to moderate or strong El Niño conditions that will increase vertical wind shear and hinder storm development. This aligns with trader consensus implying a 60.5% probability of no Category 4 landfall (sustained winds 130–156 mph) on the continental U.S. before 2027, following three consecutive years (2023–2025) without such an event despite historical averages near 30–40% for majors overall. Warmer western Atlantic sea surface temperatures offer some intensification potential, but El Niño dominance tempers odds; watch NOAA's full outlook on May 21 and National Hurricane Center updates as the June 1–November 30 season nears.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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