Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.9% implied probability on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken 19-year history of annual fall flagship launches, including the iPhone 17 series on schedule in September 2025. Recent supply chain leaks from early May 2026 affirm production ramps for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max ahead of a presumed September event, bolstering conviction despite unverified rumors of a base iPhone 18 delay to spring 2027. This skin-in-the-game sentiment dismisses a full-lineup postponement as remote, though realistic challenges like unprecedented chip shortages, regulatory hurdles, or a strategic pivot to biennial cycles could still upend the timeline before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$96,027 거래량
$96,027 거래량
2026.12.31
$96,027 거래량
$96,027 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.9% implied probability on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken 19-year history of annual fall flagship launches, including the iPhone 17 series on schedule in September 2025. Recent supply chain leaks from early May 2026 affirm production ramps for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max ahead of a presumed September event, bolstering conviction despite unverified rumors of a base iPhone 18 delay to spring 2027. This skin-in-the-game sentiment dismisses a full-lineup postponement as remote, though realistic challenges like unprecedented chip shortages, regulatory hurdles, or a strategic pivot to biennial cycles could still upend the timeline before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
거래량
$96,027종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.9% implied probability on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken 19-year history of annual fall flagship launches, including the iPhone 17 series on schedule in September 2025. Recent supply chain leaks from early May 2026 affirm production ramps for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max ahead of a presumed September event, bolstering conviction despite unverified rumors of a base iPhone 18 delay to spring 2027. This skin-in-the-game sentiment dismisses a full-lineup postponement as remote, though realistic challenges like unprecedented chip shortages, regulatory hurdles, or a strategic pivot to biennial cycles could still upend the timeline before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$96,027종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.9% implied probability on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken 19-year history of annual fall flagship launches, including the iPhone 17 series on schedule in September 2025. Recent supply chain leaks from early May 2026 affirm production ramps for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max ahead of a presumed September event, bolstering conviction despite unverified rumors of a base iPhone 18 delay to spring 2027. This skin-in-the-game sentiment dismisses a full-lineup postponement as remote, though realistic challenges like unprecedented chip shortages, regulatory hurdles, or a strategic pivot to biennial cycles could still upend the timeline before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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