OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5, its most capable frontier model to date with enhanced agentic reasoning, 100 million token context, and reduced hallucinations, has solidified trader consensus on the company's rapid iteration cadence following GPT-5's 2025 debut. This positions markets favoring a subsequent frontier model—surpassing GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks like coding or multimodal tasks—within near-term windows, driven by competitive pressures from Anthropic's Claude 4.5 and Google's teased Gemini upgrade at I/O on May 19. While supply chain scaling and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety introduce slippage risks, OpenAI's history of quarterly updates and real capital on Polymarket reflect strong expectations for continued acceleration amid the arms race in large language models.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,243 거래량
2026.05.31
5월 31일
20%
June 30
73%
September 30
94%
$10,243 거래량
5월 31일
$2,156 거래량
20%
June 30
$2,467 거래량
73%
September 30
$5,620 거래량
94%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5, its most capable frontier model to date with enhanced agentic reasoning, 100 million token context, and reduced hallucinations, has solidified trader consensus on the company's rapid iteration cadence following GPT-5's 2025 debut. This positions markets favoring a subsequent frontier model—surpassing GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks like coding or multimodal tasks—within near-term windows, driven by competitive pressures from Anthropic's Claude 4.5 and Google's teased Gemini upgrade at I/O on May 19. While supply chain scaling and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety introduce slippage risks, OpenAI's history of quarterly updates and real capital on Polymarket reflect strong expectations for continued acceleration amid the arms race in large language models.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
거래량
$10,243종료일
2026.09.30마켓 개설일
May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5, its most capable frontier model to date with enhanced agentic reasoning, 100 million token context, and reduced hallucinations, has solidified trader consensus on the company's rapid iteration cadence following GPT-5's 2025 debut. This positions markets favoring a subsequent frontier model—surpassing GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks like coding or multimodal tasks—within near-term windows, driven by competitive pressures from Anthropic's Claude 4.5 and Google's teased Gemini upgrade at I/O on May 19. While supply chain scaling and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety introduce slippage risks, OpenAI's history of quarterly updates and real capital on Polymarket reflect strong expectations for continued acceleration amid the arms race in large language models.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$10,243종료일
2026.09.30마켓 개설일
May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5, its most capable frontier model to date with enhanced agentic reasoning, 100 million token context, and reduced hallucinations, has solidified trader consensus on the company's rapid iteration cadence following GPT-5's 2025 debut. This positions markets favoring a subsequent frontier model—surpassing GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks like coding or multimodal tasks—within near-term windows, driven by competitive pressures from Anthropic's Claude 4.5 and Google's teased Gemini upgrade at I/O on May 19. While supply chain scaling and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety introduce slippage risks, OpenAI's history of quarterly updates and real capital on Polymarket reflect strong expectations for continued acceleration amid the arms race in large language models.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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