Tesla’s Cybercab faces significant hurdles in achieving a sub-$30,000 price point with meaningful 2026 sales volume, driving the 73.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Traders cite repeated delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment, ongoing regulatory scrutiny from NHTSA and state agencies, and supply-chain constraints typical for new hardware platforms. Recent earnings commentary and internal timelines have tempered earlier optimism around rapid robotaxi scaling, while competitive benchmarks from Waymo and Cruise underscore the gap between demonstration videos and profitable, certified autonomous fleets. Key catalysts ahead include any verified production milestones or major policy shifts on driverless operations that could alter sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$35,757 거래량
$35,757 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$35,757 거래량
$35,757 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab faces significant hurdles in achieving a sub-$30,000 price point with meaningful 2026 sales volume, driving the 73.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Traders cite repeated delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment, ongoing regulatory scrutiny from NHTSA and state agencies, and supply-chain constraints typical for new hardware platforms. Recent earnings commentary and internal timelines have tempered earlier optimism around rapid robotaxi scaling, while competitive benchmarks from Waymo and Cruise underscore the gap between demonstration videos and profitable, certified autonomous fleets. Key catalysts ahead include any verified production milestones or major policy shifts on driverless operations that could alter sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
거래량
$35,757종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab faces significant hurdles in achieving a sub-$30,000 price point with meaningful 2026 sales volume, driving the 73.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Traders cite repeated delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment, ongoing regulatory scrutiny from NHTSA and state agencies, and supply-chain constraints typical for new hardware platforms. Recent earnings commentary and internal timelines have tempered earlier optimism around rapid robotaxi scaling, while competitive benchmarks from Waymo and Cruise underscore the gap between demonstration videos and profitable, certified autonomous fleets. Key catalysts ahead include any verified production milestones or major policy shifts on driverless operations that could alter sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$35,757종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s Cybercab faces significant hurdles in achieving a sub-$30,000 price point with meaningful 2026 sales volume, driving the 73.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Traders cite repeated delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment, ongoing regulatory scrutiny from NHTSA and state agencies, and supply-chain constraints typical for new hardware platforms. Recent earnings commentary and internal timelines have tempered earlier optimism around rapid robotaxi scaling, while competitive benchmarks from Waymo and Cruise underscore the gap between demonstration videos and profitable, certified autonomous fleets. Key catalysts ahead include any verified production milestones or major policy shifts on driverless operations that could alter sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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