Traders assign the highest probability to Other at 45.5 percent for the national House popular vote margin in the 2026 midterms, with Democratic advantages of 8–10 percent and 10–12 percent following at 14.5 percent and 12.5 percent respectively. This positioning stems from sustained Democratic leads of roughly 5–10 points in recent generic ballot polling, driven by the typical midterm penalty for the president's party and President Trump's approval rating hovering near 45 percent amid economic dissatisfaction. Historical patterns of seat swings tied to national vote margins support modest Democratic edges, yet the broad Other bucket reflects uncertainty over exact outcomes given ongoing redistricting, candidate recruitment, and potential late shifts in voter turnout or issue salience ahead of November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDemocrats 8-10% 15%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Republicans 0-2% 8.8%
Republicans 2-4% 9%
$34,681 Wol.
$34,681 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
3%
Democrats 14-16%
3%
Democrats 12-14%
4%
Democrats 10-12%
13%
Democrats 8-10%
15%
Democrats 6-8%
8%
Democrats 4-6%
7%
Democrats 2-4%
4%
Democrats 0-2%
5%
Republicans 0-2%
9%
Republicans 2-4%
9%
Republicans 4-6%
2%
Republicans 6%+
3%
Democrats 8-10% 15%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Republicans 0-2% 8.8%
Republicans 2-4% 9%
$34,681 Wol.
$34,681 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$804 Wol.
3%
Democrats 14-16%
$476 Wol.
3%
Democrats 12-14%
$462 Wol.
4%
Democrats 10-12%
$830 Wol.
13%
Democrats 8-10%
$1,555 Wol.
15%
Democrats 6-8%
$693 Wol.
8%
Democrats 4-6%
$258 Wol.
7%
Democrats 2-4%
$1,007 Wol.
4%
Democrats 0-2%
$889 Wol.
5%
Republicans 0-2%
$864 Wol.
9%
Republicans 2-4%
$25,856 Wol.
9%
Republicans 4-6%
$230 Wol.
2%
Republicans 6%+
$757 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Traders assign the highest probability to Other at 45.5 percent for the national House popular vote margin in the 2026 midterms, with Democratic advantages of 8–10 percent and 10–12 percent following at 14.5 percent and 12.5 percent respectively. This positioning stems from sustained Democratic leads of roughly 5–10 points in recent generic ballot polling, driven by the typical midterm penalty for the president's party and President Trump's approval rating hovering near 45 percent amid economic dissatisfaction. Historical patterns of seat swings tied to national vote margins support modest Democratic edges, yet the broad Other bucket reflects uncertainty over exact outcomes given ongoing redistricting, candidate recruitment, and potential late shifts in voter turnout or issue salience ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$34,681Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Traders assign the highest probability to Other at 45.5 percent for the national House popular vote margin in the 2026 midterms, with Democratic advantages of 8–10 percent and 10–12 percent following at 14.5 percent and 12.5 percent respectively. This positioning stems from sustained Democratic leads of roughly 5–10 points in recent generic ballot polling, driven by the typical midterm penalty for the president's party and President Trump's approval rating hovering near 45 percent amid economic dissatisfaction. Historical patterns of seat swings tied to national vote margins support modest Democratic edges, yet the broad Other bucket reflects uncertainty over exact outcomes given ongoing redistricting, candidate recruitment, and potential late shifts in voter turnout or issue salience ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Wolumen
$34,681Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest probability to Other at 45.5 percent for the national House popular vote margin in the 2026 midterms, with Democratic advantages of 8–10 percent and 10–12 percent following at 14.5 percent and 12.5 percent respectively. This positioning stems from sustained Democratic leads of roughly 5–10 points in recent generic ballot polling, driven by the typical midterm penalty for the president's party and President Trump's approval rating hovering near 45 percent amid economic dissatisfaction. Historical patterns of seat swings tied to national vote margins support modest Democratic edges, yet the broad Other bucket reflects uncertainty over exact outcomes given ongoing redistricting, candidate recruitment, and potential late shifts in voter turnout or issue salience ahead of November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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