Recent polling in Texas and Iowa shows the narrowest projected margins among 2026 Senate contests, driving trader consensus that one of these races will finish closest on election night. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn produced a general-election matchup against Democrat James Talarico that has repeatedly polled within a few points. Iowa’s open seat features Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in similarly tight surveys. The Ohio special election pitting Jon Husted against Sherrod Brown and several other Republican-held seats remain competitive but register slightly wider spreads in current data. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns in battleground areas, and any national economic or campaign developments could widen or narrow these gaps before November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.9%
$28,210 Wol.
$28,210 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
25%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Nebraska
5%
Michigan
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
1%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.9%
$28,210 Wol.
$28,210 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,058 Wol.
25%
Iowa
$2,677 Wol.
22%
Maine
$1,285 Wol.
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Wol.
14%
Alaska
$5,272 Wol.
12%
Nebraska
$275 Wol.
5%
Michigan
$2,490 Wol.
5%
New Mexico
$160 Wol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Wol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Wol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Wol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Wol.
1%
Georgia
$752 Wol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Wol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Wol.
1%
Montana
$616 Wol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Texas and Iowa shows the narrowest projected margins among 2026 Senate contests, driving trader consensus that one of these races will finish closest on election night. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn produced a general-election matchup against Democrat James Talarico that has repeatedly polled within a few points. Iowa’s open seat features Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in similarly tight surveys. The Ohio special election pitting Jon Husted against Sherrod Brown and several other Republican-held seats remain competitive but register slightly wider spreads in current data. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns in battleground areas, and any national economic or campaign developments could widen or narrow these gaps before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,210Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Texas and Iowa shows the narrowest projected margins among 2026 Senate contests, driving trader consensus that one of these races will finish closest on election night. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn produced a general-election matchup against Democrat James Talarico that has repeatedly polled within a few points. Iowa’s open seat features Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in similarly tight surveys. The Ohio special election pitting Jon Husted against Sherrod Brown and several other Republican-held seats remain competitive but register slightly wider spreads in current data. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns in battleground areas, and any national economic or campaign developments could widen or narrow these gaps before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$28,210Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Texas and Iowa shows the narrowest projected margins among 2026 Senate contests, driving trader consensus that one of these races will finish closest on election night. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn produced a general-election matchup against Democrat James Talarico that has repeatedly polled within a few points. Iowa’s open seat features Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in similarly tight surveys. The Ohio special election pitting Jon Husted against Sherrod Brown and several other Republican-held seats remain competitive but register slightly wider spreads in current data. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns in battleground areas, and any national economic or campaign developments could widen or narrow these gaps before November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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