Recent polling averages place Democratic state Representative James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the contest for Texas’s open U.S. Senate seat, with Talarico leading by one to five points in surveys conducted through early October. Talarico draws strong support from independents, younger voters, Black and Hispanic voters, and those prioritizing the economy, while Paxton maintains advantages among white evangelicals, rural voters, and those focused on immigration. Republican-aligned super PACs have deployed more than $130 million in advertising since mid-September to bolster Paxton, narrowing some gaps but not reversing Talarico’s edge in most surveys. With early voting set to begin October 19 and Election Day on November 3, trader consensus reflects the race’s competitiveness and Talarico’s current positioning.