Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through the end of 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to early removal for a sitting chief executive. Impeachment requires House majority support followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction, a threshold rarely met in recent decades even under divided government. No active proceedings or bipartisan consensus for resignation have emerged, and midterm election results have not produced the necessary congressional shifts. Health-related invocation of the 25th Amendment would demand cabinet and vice-presidential action unlikely without clear incapacity. Late-breaking developments such as acute medical events, major scandals triggering sustained bipartisan pressure, or unforeseen legal rulings could still alter the timeline, though none currently register as probable catalysts in the resolution window.