Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote because he has consolidated the core right-wing and evangelical voter base behind the Liberal Party candidacy, following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent polling from June shows him trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly 10 points in first-round scenarios while outpacing fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. A May Banco Master film-funding scandal temporarily eroded Flávio’s numbers and lifted Lula’s runoff margins, yet no rival has capitalized enough to displace him as the primary opposition standard-bearer. Renan Santos draws modest youth and activist support but remains distant in aggregates, while other listed figures register negligible shares amid the two-round system’s emphasis on the leading pair.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlávio Bolsonaro 79%
Renan Santos 12.3%
Michelle Bolsonaro 3.2%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 3.0%
$3,844,865 Wol.
$3,844,865 Wol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
79%
Renan Santos
12%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 79%
Renan Santos 12.3%
Michelle Bolsonaro 3.2%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 3.0%
$3,844,865 Wol.
$3,844,865 Wol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
79%
Renan Santos
12%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote because he has consolidated the core right-wing and evangelical voter base behind the Liberal Party candidacy, following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent polling from June shows him trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly 10 points in first-round scenarios while outpacing fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. A May Banco Master film-funding scandal temporarily eroded Flávio’s numbers and lifted Lula’s runoff margins, yet no rival has capitalized enough to displace him as the primary opposition standard-bearer. Renan Santos draws modest youth and activist support but remains distant in aggregates, while other listed figures register negligible shares amid the two-round system’s emphasis on the leading pair.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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