Flávio Bolsonaro faces ongoing Supreme Court investigations opened in July into alleged corruption, money laundering, and related offenses tied to film financing from a disgraced banker, with documents unsealed in mid-September, yet no formal charges or arrest warrants have materialized. As a sitting senator and leading presidential candidate ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, procedural protections, Senate status, and the compressed timeline to September 30 limit rapid escalation by federal authorities or the STF. Recent reports of property links to separate probes add scrutiny but have not triggered new actions. Trader consensus at 95.3% for "No" reflects these barriers and the absence of imminent developments. Late-breaking evidence or an expedited judicial order could still shift outcomes before the deadline, though such steps remain uncommon in this timeframe.