Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv FIR open through mid-August 2026 despite renewed military activity after the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown in July, with EASA noting elevated risks from potential missile or drone strikes tied to Iran, Hezbollah, or Houthi actions. Officials, including Transportation Minister Miri Regev, have confirmed continued operations at Ben-Gurion Airport following recent assessments, and temporary closures earlier in the year (February–July) were brief and linked to specific strikes or interceptions rather than sustained shutdowns. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to near-term full closure because the security situation, while volatile, has not triggered new restrictions, though any escalation in regional exchanges could prompt rapid reassessment within the market's resolution windows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$27,076,384 Wol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 31
5%
$27,076,384 Wol.
August 15
$1,006,715 Wol.
<1%
August 31
$1,046,485 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv FIR open through mid-August 2026 despite renewed military activity after the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown in July, with EASA noting elevated risks from potential missile or drone strikes tied to Iran, Hezbollah, or Houthi actions. Officials, including Transportation Minister Miri Regev, have confirmed continued operations at Ben-Gurion Airport following recent assessments, and temporary closures earlier in the year (February–July) were brief and linked to specific strikes or interceptions rather than sustained shutdowns. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to near-term full closure because the security situation, while volatile, has not triggered new restrictions, though any escalation in regional exchanges could prompt rapid reassessment within the market's resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Wolumen
$27,076,384Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv FIR open through mid-August 2026 despite renewed military activity after the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown in July, with EASA noting elevated risks from potential missile or drone strikes tied to Iran, Hezbollah, or Houthi actions. Officials, including Transportation Minister Miri Regev, have confirmed continued operations at Ben-Gurion Airport following recent assessments, and temporary closures earlier in the year (February–July) were brief and linked to specific strikes or interceptions rather than sustained shutdowns. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to near-term full closure because the security situation, while volatile, has not triggered new restrictions, though any escalation in regional exchanges could prompt rapid reassessment within the market's resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$27,076,384Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli authorities have kept the Tel Aviv FIR open through mid-August 2026 despite renewed military activity after the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown in July, with EASA noting elevated risks from potential missile or drone strikes tied to Iran, Hezbollah, or Houthi actions. Officials, including Transportation Minister Miri Regev, have confirmed continued operations at Ben-Gurion Airport following recent assessments, and temporary closures earlier in the year (February–July) were brief and linked to specific strikes or interceptions rather than sustained shutdowns. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to near-term full closure because the security situation, while volatile, has not triggered new restrictions, though any escalation in regional exchanges could prompt rapid reassessment within the market's resolution windows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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