**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$23,399,380 Wol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 22
1%
August 31
3%
September 30
7%
October 31
11%
November 30
14%
31 grudnia
19%
June 30, 2027
26%
$23,399,380 Wol.
August 15
$52,827 Wol.
<1%
August 22
$22,471 Wol.
1%
August 31
$1,130,036 Wol.
3%
September 30
$431,462 Wol.
7%
October 31
$7,555 Wol.
11%
November 30
$8,923 Wol.
14%
31 grudnia
$3,967,645 Wol.
19%
June 30, 2027
$232,084 Wol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$23,399,380Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$23,399,380Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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