Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. Mojtaba has since issued written directives, held October consultations with military and security officials, and oversaw August appointments of new IRGC and armed forces commanders to address wartime losses. These steps, alongside the temporary leadership council’s role and ongoing nuclear and Strait of Hormuz negotiations, shape trader views on further transitions. Constitutional succession rules, hardliner resistance to compromise after US midterms, and active conflict dynamics remain the main variables that could alter probabilities of additional leadership change by target dates.