The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with a three-member interim council assuming duties before the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9. This managed transition amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic pressures has anchored trader consensus around continuity under the new supreme leader, resulting in low probabilities for near-term dates through late 2026. Markets assign modestly higher odds to mid-2027 outcomes due to persistent uncertainties around IRGC influence, economic strains, potential escalations with Israel or the U.S., and the Assembly of Experts' future role in any further leadership shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$23,338,700 Wol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 22
1%
August 31
3%
September 30
7%
October 31
10%
November 30
14%
31 grudnia
19%
June 30, 2027
32%
$23,338,700 Wol.
August 15
$38,508 Wol.
<1%
August 22
$22,227 Wol.
1%
August 31
$1,115,921 Wol.
3%
September 30
$422,102 Wol.
7%
October 31
$7,505 Wol.
10%
November 30
$8,810 Wol.
14%
31 grudnia
$3,961,609 Wol.
19%
June 30, 2027
$215,642 Wol.
32%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with a three-member interim council assuming duties before the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9. This managed transition amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic pressures has anchored trader consensus around continuity under the new supreme leader, resulting in low probabilities for near-term dates through late 2026. Markets assign modestly higher odds to mid-2027 outcomes due to persistent uncertainties around IRGC influence, economic strains, potential escalations with Israel or the U.S., and the Assembly of Experts' future role in any further leadership shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$23,338,700Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with a three-member interim council assuming duties before the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9. This managed transition amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic pressures has anchored trader consensus around continuity under the new supreme leader, resulting in low probabilities for near-term dates through late 2026. Markets assign modestly higher odds to mid-2027 outcomes due to persistent uncertainties around IRGC influence, economic strains, potential escalations with Israel or the U.S., and the Assembly of Experts' future role in any further leadership shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$23,338,700Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with a three-member interim council assuming duties before the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9. This managed transition amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic pressures has anchored trader consensus around continuity under the new supreme leader, resulting in low probabilities for near-term dates through late 2026. Markets assign modestly higher odds to mid-2027 outcomes due to persistent uncertainties around IRGC influence, economic strains, potential escalations with Israel or the U.S., and the Assembly of Experts' future role in any further leadership shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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