The Assembly of Experts has reached a majority consensus on a successor following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a US-Israel strike in early 2026, with Mojtaba Khamenei positioned as the leading candidate through the constitutional transition process. Recent October consultations with parliament, judiciary, and military officials, alongside August military command appointments to fill war-related vacancies, signal efforts to consolidate authority under the new leader amid active conflict. Ongoing diplomatic outreach and hardline positions tied to US midterm election outcomes continue to influence stability assessments, while the leadership council manages interim duties until formal resolution. These developments tie directly to trader views on the timing and finality of any further leadership shifts.