Trader sentiment on Iranian leadership change reflects uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's capacity to lead amid the ongoing US-Iran war, following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, and his own appointment by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Recent reports from April-May detail Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attacks—including facial burns, leg surgeries requiring a prosthetic, and speech difficulties—coupled with his absence from public view and reliance on couriers, audio approvals, and alleged AI-generated videos for communications. This fuels speculation of internal power struggles among IRGC commanders and clerics during ceasefire negotiations, with US intelligence questioning his influence and potential for further transitions before year-end amid stalled talks and escalation risks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$13,493,231 Wol.
May 31, 2026
31 maja
8%
30 czerwca
15%
31 grudnia
37%
$13,493,231 Wol.
31 maja
$1,870,583 Wol.
8%
30 czerwca
$1,044,494 Wol.
15%
31 grudnia
$2,382,272 Wol.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iranian leadership change reflects uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's capacity to lead amid the ongoing US-Iran war, following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, and his own appointment by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Recent reports from April-May detail Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attacks—including facial burns, leg surgeries requiring a prosthetic, and speech difficulties—coupled with his absence from public view and reliance on couriers, audio approvals, and alleged AI-generated videos for communications. This fuels speculation of internal power struggles among IRGC commanders and clerics during ceasefire negotiations, with US intelligence questioning his influence and potential for further transitions before year-end amid stalled talks and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Wolumen
$13,493,231Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iranian leadership change reflects uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's capacity to lead amid the ongoing US-Iran war, following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, and his own appointment by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Recent reports from April-May detail Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attacks—including facial burns, leg surgeries requiring a prosthetic, and speech difficulties—coupled with his absence from public view and reliance on couriers, audio approvals, and alleged AI-generated videos for communications. This fuels speculation of internal power struggles among IRGC commanders and clerics during ceasefire negotiations, with US intelligence questioning his influence and potential for further transitions before year-end amid stalled talks and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$13,493,231Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Iranian leadership change reflects uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's capacity to lead amid the ongoing US-Iran war, following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, and his own appointment by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Recent reports from April-May detail Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attacks—including facial burns, leg surgeries requiring a prosthetic, and speech difficulties—coupled with his absence from public view and reliance on couriers, audio approvals, and alleged AI-generated videos for communications. This fuels speculation of internal power struggles among IRGC commanders and clerics during ceasefire negotiations, with US intelligence questioning his influence and potential for further transitions before year-end amid stalled talks and escalation risks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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