Recent diplomatic progress and de-escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict underpin the 82.5% implied probability that the United States will not launch a ground invasion before 2027. After U.S.-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28 and subsequent missile exchanges, the parties reached a June memorandum of understanding that lifted elements of the naval blockade, reopened Strait of Hormuz access, eased sanctions, and initiated nuclear inspections and reconstruction talks. Renewed July strikes on Iranian assets targeting shipping threats paused by late July amid Omani-mediated discussions and White House signals favoring negotiations. Traders price in the high costs and risks of occupation, the administration’s focus on sanctions relief and investment frameworks over regime change, and historical reluctance for large-scale ground operations absent direct territorial threats. Scheduled technical talks and the 60-day MOU timeline further support the current consensus.