**Recent diplomatic progress has reinforced trader expectations that the United States will avoid a ground invasion of Iran before 2027.** After joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, which targeted Iranian military infrastructure and leadership but stopped short of deploying U.S. ground forces, a ceasefire took hold in April. Tensions then centered on the Strait of Hormuz blockade before a June 14 memorandum of understanding established a framework for ending hostilities, reopening maritime traffic, providing sanctions relief, and launching 60-day nuclear talks. The agreement, scheduled for formal signing on June 19 in Geneva, reflects a preference for negotiated limits on Iran’s programs over territorial occupation. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have signaled ongoing skepticism toward large-scale troop commitments, consistent with the limited scope of prior operations and the rapid pivot to diplomacy. These developments have aligned prediction-market pricing with the low near-term probability of an invasion.