Active diplomatic preparations for a trilateral summit on the sidelines of the November 18-19 APEC forum in Shenzhen have anchored trader consensus around China at 94.5 percent. Recent statements from Trump expressing openness to meetings with Putin and Xi, combined with Kremlin confirmations that coordination is underway and Chinese foreign ministry acknowledgments of ongoing talks, have reinforced expectations of a bilateral Trump-Putin encounter in that setting. U.S. envoys’ November 12 discussions with Putin further signal momentum toward engagement during the China-hosted event. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include last-minute cancellations due to agenda disputes, a pivot to purely bilateral formats excluding the trilateral element, or unforeseen diplomatic developments before year-end that redirect the next meeting elsewhere.