Persistent disagreements over territory, security guarantees, and European involvement have kept direct leader-level diplomacy between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin stalled, driving the overwhelming trader consensus that no meeting will occur before 2027. Recent U.S.-mediated technical talks in Abu Dhabi produced only limited progress on prisoner exchanges and humanitarian measures, with no movement on core issues such as control of Donbas or postwar security architecture. Russia continues to condition any summit on prior agreement to its demands, while Ukraine insists territorial concessions remain off the table. Historical patterns of prolonged negotiation and battlefield stalemate reinforce expectations of delay. A rapid shift in positions during follow-on talks, a major battlefield development, or an unexpected high-level diplomatic breakthrough could still alter this outlook within the narrow remaining window.