Trump's 2026 diplomatic calendar, shaped by his second-term foreign policy priorities on trade, security alliances, and conflict resolution, drives outcomes in this market. Key catalysts include the May Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, multiple bilateral sessions with European leaders at NATO events, and engagements with Zelenskyy, Erdogan, and others at multilateral forums. The U.S.-hosted G20 in Miami and potential fall UN General Assembly or additional state visits could create new in-person meetings through year-end. Trader consensus reflects confirmed past encounters alongside uncertainty over unannounced bilateral or sideline talks with figures such as Putin, MBS, or Meloni, with resolution hinging on verifiable in-person interactions before December 31.