Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators, has produced only limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. Core disputes persist over territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia maintaining maximalist positions on Donbas and related issues while both sides continue military operations. A brief U.S.-brokered three-day pause in May 2026 accompanied a large prisoner exchange but quickly ended amid violations. Talks have been further complicated by U.S. focus on other conflicts and upcoming visits by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Traders view these entrenched barriers and lack of substantive breakthroughs as sustaining low implied probabilities for a formal, mutually agreed halt in hostilities by year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,889,428 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
12%
August 31
4%
December 31
25%
$5,889,428 Wol.
October 31
$845,788 Wol.
12%
August 31
$369,885 Wol.
4%
December 31
$2,136,423 Wol.
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators, has produced only limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. Core disputes persist over territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia maintaining maximalist positions on Donbas and related issues while both sides continue military operations. A brief U.S.-brokered three-day pause in May 2026 accompanied a large prisoner exchange but quickly ended amid violations. Talks have been further complicated by U.S. focus on other conflicts and upcoming visits by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Traders view these entrenched barriers and lack of substantive breakthroughs as sustaining low implied probabilities for a formal, mutually agreed halt in hostilities by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,889,428Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators, has produced only limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. Core disputes persist over territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia maintaining maximalist positions on Donbas and related issues while both sides continue military operations. A brief U.S.-brokered three-day pause in May 2026 accompanied a large prisoner exchange but quickly ended amid violations. Talks have been further complicated by U.S. focus on other conflicts and upcoming visits by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Traders view these entrenched barriers and lack of substantive breakthroughs as sustaining low implied probabilities for a formal, mutually agreed halt in hostilities by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$5,889,428Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to American negotiators, has produced only limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. Core disputes persist over territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia maintaining maximalist positions on Donbas and related issues while both sides continue military operations. A brief U.S.-brokered three-day pause in May 2026 accompanied a large prisoner exchange but quickly ended amid violations. Talks have been further complicated by U.S. focus on other conflicts and upcoming visits by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Traders view these entrenched barriers and lack of substantive breakthroughs as sustaining low implied probabilities for a formal, mutually agreed halt in hostilities by year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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