Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, timed with Russia's Victory Day observances and paired with an initial prisoner-of-war exchange. Both sides later accused each other of violations involving drone strikes and artillery fire, though a limited swap of 205 captives each occurred on May 15 as part of the original deal. Ongoing trilateral talks in Geneva continue to address monitoring mechanisms, territorial issues, and security guarantees, while President Trump has signaled hopes for extension of the pause. These developments reflect intensified mediation efforts amid the four-year conflict, with trader focus on whether any temporary halt evolves into a formally announced and mutually observed agreement by the June 30 deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$510,096 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
2%
June 30
12%
October 31
37%
December 31
48%
$510,096 Wol.
May 31
$198,724 Wol.
2%
June 30
$177,434 Wol.
12%
October 31
$45,405 Wol.
37%
December 31
$88,552 Wol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, timed with Russia's Victory Day observances and paired with an initial prisoner-of-war exchange. Both sides later accused each other of violations involving drone strikes and artillery fire, though a limited swap of 205 captives each occurred on May 15 as part of the original deal. Ongoing trilateral talks in Geneva continue to address monitoring mechanisms, territorial issues, and security guarantees, while President Trump has signaled hopes for extension of the pause. These developments reflect intensified mediation efforts amid the four-year conflict, with trader focus on whether any temporary halt evolves into a formally announced and mutually observed agreement by the June 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$510,096Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, timed with Russia's Victory Day observances and paired with an initial prisoner-of-war exchange. Both sides later accused each other of violations involving drone strikes and artillery fire, though a limited swap of 205 captives each occurred on May 15 as part of the original deal. Ongoing trilateral talks in Geneva continue to address monitoring mechanisms, territorial issues, and security guarantees, while President Trump has signaled hopes for extension of the pause. These developments reflect intensified mediation efforts amid the four-year conflict, with trader focus on whether any temporary halt evolves into a formally announced and mutually observed agreement by the June 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$510,096Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, timed with Russia's Victory Day observances and paired with an initial prisoner-of-war exchange. Both sides later accused each other of violations involving drone strikes and artillery fire, though a limited swap of 205 captives each occurred on May 15 as part of the original deal. Ongoing trilateral talks in Geneva continue to address monitoring mechanisms, territorial issues, and security guarantees, while President Trump has signaled hopes for extension of the pause. These developments reflect intensified mediation efforts amid the four-year conflict, with trader focus on whether any temporary halt evolves into a formally announced and mutually observed agreement by the June 30 deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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