Traders see a 95% probability that Russia will not launch an invasion of another country in 2026, driven by the Russian military's sustained commitment of personnel and equipment to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Economic sanctions continue to limit large-scale force projection, while official statements from Moscow have emphasized consolidation of existing positions rather than new operations. No verified troop movements, equipment surges, or leadership rhetoric in recent months have pointed to imminent cross-border action against additional neighbors. International monitoring and diplomatic reporting have likewise shown no acute escalation signals within the current calendar year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
5% szansa
$400,306 Wol.
$400,306 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
$400,306 Wol.
$400,306 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see a 95% probability that Russia will not launch an invasion of another country in 2026, driven by the Russian military's sustained commitment of personnel and equipment to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Economic sanctions continue to limit large-scale force projection, while official statements from Moscow have emphasized consolidation of existing positions rather than new operations. No verified troop movements, equipment surges, or leadership rhetoric in recent months have pointed to imminent cross-border action against additional neighbors. International monitoring and diplomatic reporting have likewise shown no acute escalation signals within the current calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$400,306Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see a 95% probability that Russia will not launch an invasion of another country in 2026, driven by the Russian military's sustained commitment of personnel and equipment to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Economic sanctions continue to limit large-scale force projection, while official statements from Moscow have emphasized consolidation of existing positions rather than new operations. No verified troop movements, equipment surges, or leadership rhetoric in recent months have pointed to imminent cross-border action against additional neighbors. International monitoring and diplomatic reporting have likewise shown no acute escalation signals within the current calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$400,306Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see a 95% probability that Russia will not launch an invasion of another country in 2026, driven by the Russian military's sustained commitment of personnel and equipment to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Economic sanctions continue to limit large-scale force projection, while official statements from Moscow have emphasized consolidation of existing positions rather than new operations. No verified troop movements, equipment surges, or leadership rhetoric in recent months have pointed to imminent cross-border action against additional neighbors. International monitoring and diplomatic reporting have likewise shown no acute escalation signals within the current calendar year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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