Russia's military remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine through mid-August 2026, with recent ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting infrastructure in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia alongside incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast. Prolonged attrition, elevated casualty rates, and Ukrainian counterstrikes on Russian energy and logistics assets have constrained Moscow's resources and operational tempo. Continued Western sanctions, arms support to Kyiv, and the absence of verified preparations or statements signaling new cross-border operations contribute to trader consensus against a fresh invasion elsewhere in 2026. Diplomatic and hybrid activities, including nuclear signaling, have not translated into expanded conventional commitments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
6% szansa
$400,306 Wol.
$400,306 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% szansa
$400,306 Wol.
$400,306 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's military remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine through mid-August 2026, with recent ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting infrastructure in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia alongside incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast. Prolonged attrition, elevated casualty rates, and Ukrainian counterstrikes on Russian energy and logistics assets have constrained Moscow's resources and operational tempo. Continued Western sanctions, arms support to Kyiv, and the absence of verified preparations or statements signaling new cross-border operations contribute to trader consensus against a fresh invasion elsewhere in 2026. Diplomatic and hybrid activities, including nuclear signaling, have not translated into expanded conventional commitments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$400,306Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's military remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine through mid-August 2026, with recent ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting infrastructure in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia alongside incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast. Prolonged attrition, elevated casualty rates, and Ukrainian counterstrikes on Russian energy and logistics assets have constrained Moscow's resources and operational tempo. Continued Western sanctions, arms support to Kyiv, and the absence of verified preparations or statements signaling new cross-border operations contribute to trader consensus against a fresh invasion elsewhere in 2026. Diplomatic and hybrid activities, including nuclear signaling, have not translated into expanded conventional commitments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$400,306Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's military remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine through mid-August 2026, with recent ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting infrastructure in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia alongside incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast. Prolonged attrition, elevated casualty rates, and Ukrainian counterstrikes on Russian energy and logistics assets have constrained Moscow's resources and operational tempo. Continued Western sanctions, arms support to Kyiv, and the absence of verified preparations or statements signaling new cross-border operations contribute to trader consensus against a fresh invasion elsewhere in 2026. Diplomatic and hybrid activities, including nuclear signaling, have not translated into expanded conventional commitments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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