Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth year as of February 2026, dominates trader sentiment with an 88.5% implied probability for no new invasion this year, reflecting Moscow's depleted military resources amid high casualties, equipment losses exceeding 22,000 units since 2022, and net territorial setbacks in April—the first since August 2024. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments highlight Ukrainian battlefield advances and Russian communication breakdowns, underscoring Putin's intensified demands for concessions without breakthroughs. No verified troop buildups or official signals target other states like Moldova or the Baltics, where NATO deterrence adds barriers; sanctions and recruitment of 18,500 foreigners focus solely on sustaining the Ukraine front through 2026, limiting escalation risks despite hybrid threats.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
$150,344 Wol.
$150,344 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$150,344 Wol.
$150,344 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth year as of February 2026, dominates trader sentiment with an 88.5% implied probability for no new invasion this year, reflecting Moscow's depleted military resources amid high casualties, equipment losses exceeding 22,000 units since 2022, and net territorial setbacks in April—the first since August 2024. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments highlight Ukrainian battlefield advances and Russian communication breakdowns, underscoring Putin's intensified demands for concessions without breakthroughs. No verified troop buildups or official signals target other states like Moldova or the Baltics, where NATO deterrence adds barriers; sanctions and recruitment of 18,500 foreigners focus solely on sustaining the Ukraine front through 2026, limiting escalation risks despite hybrid threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$150,344Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth year as of February 2026, dominates trader sentiment with an 88.5% implied probability for no new invasion this year, reflecting Moscow's depleted military resources amid high casualties, equipment losses exceeding 22,000 units since 2022, and net territorial setbacks in April—the first since August 2024. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments highlight Ukrainian battlefield advances and Russian communication breakdowns, underscoring Putin's intensified demands for concessions without breakthroughs. No verified troop buildups or official signals target other states like Moldova or the Baltics, where NATO deterrence adds barriers; sanctions and recruitment of 18,500 foreigners focus solely on sustaining the Ukraine front through 2026, limiting escalation risks despite hybrid threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$150,344Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth year as of February 2026, dominates trader sentiment with an 88.5% implied probability for no new invasion this year, reflecting Moscow's depleted military resources amid high casualties, equipment losses exceeding 22,000 units since 2022, and net territorial setbacks in April—the first since August 2024. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments highlight Ukrainian battlefield advances and Russian communication breakdowns, underscoring Putin's intensified demands for concessions without breakthroughs. No verified troop buildups or official signals target other states like Moldova or the Baltics, where NATO deterrence adds barriers; sanctions and recruitment of 18,500 foreigners focus solely on sustaining the Ukraine front through 2026, limiting escalation risks despite hybrid threats.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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