Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to consume the bulk of its military resources, with forces unable to achieve major breakthroughs and reliant on incremental recruitment plus targeted expansions in drone and support units rather than large-scale new mobilizations. President Putin stated on October 1 that Moscow has no plans to attack any European country and seeks peaceful coexistence, while issuing defensive warnings regarding potential threats to Kaliningrad. Western intelligence assessments, including from Denmark, describe only a low but growing risk of limited strikes or hybrid actions against NATO members through the end of 2026, with outright conventional invasions viewed as highly unlikely absent months of detectable preparations that have not materialized. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability for no new invasion this year.