Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 81% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting Russia's sustained offensive form with a deadly missile barrage on Kyiv just yesterday—killing civilians including children—despite a brief three-day ceasefire and POW swap brokered by Trump last week. Ukraine faces mounting matchup disadvantages, including aid delays acting as de facto injuries to frontline units, while Putin's recent rhetoric signals no concessions on territorial demands or NATO neutrality clauses central to the parlay's multi-leg resolution before 2027. Absent breakthroughs in bilateral talks, the wisdom of crowds prices in prolonged stalemate, with Russia's resource edge and Zelenskyy's rejection of unsecured truces underscoring slim upset potential for a comprehensive deal.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$468,743 Wol.
$468,743 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$468,743 Wol.
$468,743 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus heavily favors "No" at 81% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting Russia's sustained offensive form with a deadly missile barrage on Kyiv just yesterday—killing civilians including children—despite a brief three-day ceasefire and POW swap brokered by Trump last week. Ukraine faces mounting matchup disadvantages, including aid delays acting as de facto injuries to frontline units, while Putin's recent rhetoric signals no concessions on territorial demands or NATO neutrality clauses central to the parlay's multi-leg resolution before 2027. Absent breakthroughs in bilateral talks, the wisdom of crowds prices in prolonged stalemate, with Russia's resource edge and Zelenskyy's rejection of unsecured truces underscoring slim upset potential for a comprehensive deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$468,743Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus heavily favors "No" at 81% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting Russia's sustained offensive form with a deadly missile barrage on Kyiv just yesterday—killing civilians including children—despite a brief three-day ceasefire and POW swap brokered by Trump last week. Ukraine faces mounting matchup disadvantages, including aid delays acting as de facto injuries to frontline units, while Putin's recent rhetoric signals no concessions on territorial demands or NATO neutrality clauses central to the parlay's multi-leg resolution before 2027. Absent breakthroughs in bilateral talks, the wisdom of crowds prices in prolonged stalemate, with Russia's resource edge and Zelenskyy's rejection of unsecured truces underscoring slim upset potential for a comprehensive deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Wolumen
$468,743Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 81% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting Russia's sustained offensive form with a deadly missile barrage on Kyiv just yesterday—killing civilians including children—despite a brief three-day ceasefire and POW swap brokered by Trump last week. Ukraine faces mounting matchup disadvantages, including aid delays acting as de facto injuries to frontline units, while Putin's recent rhetoric signals no concessions on territorial demands or NATO neutrality clauses central to the parlay's multi-leg resolution before 2027. Absent breakthroughs in bilateral talks, the wisdom of crowds prices in prolonged stalemate, with Russia's resource edge and Zelenskyy's rejection of unsecured truces underscoring slim upset potential for a comprehensive deal.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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