Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia continues to block any near-term path to a peace referendum, with traders assigning an 83% probability against passage before 2027. The collapse of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, amid mutual violation claims and renewed shelling, removed the immediate diplomatic momentum required for such a vote. Earlier February signals that President Zelenskyy might link presidential elections to a referendum on territorial terms have produced no legislative framework or scheduled ballot, as Russia demands concessions in Donetsk while Ukraine insists on security guarantees first. Martial-law restrictions further limit electoral procedures, civil-society groups oppose legitimizing any deal via referendum, and May army-reform announcements underscore Kyiv’s preparation for prolonged fighting rather than imminent settlement. Without a durable ceasefire or breakthrough in trilateral talks, the conditions for a binding national vote remain absent through the end of 2026.