Ongoing martial law in Ukraine bars national referendums and elections, while any vote on a peace framework would first require a sustained ceasefire, secure polling access for displaced voters and troops abroad, and time for logistical preparations under the all-Ukrainian referendum law. Diplomatic efforts through mid-2026 produced no territorial or security-guarantee consensus acceptable to both sides, leaving talks stalled despite intermittent U.S. mediation attempts. Trader consensus at 95.5% against passage before 2027 reflects these structural and diplomatic barriers through mid-August. A rapid breakthrough yielding an accepted deal and referendum in the remaining months of 2026, or a major shift in battlefield conditions prompting new talks, remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome.