**Ukraine has not reached a binding agreement capping its armed forces at a reduced level, and stalled negotiations make such an outcome before 2027 highly unlikely.** In late 2025, U.S.-brokered drafts of a peace framework included provisions for Ukraine’s peacetime forces to remain at or cap around 800,000 personnel—close to current wartime strength of roughly 880,000–900,000—after Kyiv rejected earlier language limiting the force to 600,000. Ukrainian officials, including President Zelenskyy and Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, described the 800,000 figure as reflecting existing levels, preserving full mobilization rights and regeneration capacity without permanent restrictions. Russia has continued to press for deeper constraints alongside territorial concessions, but no comprehensive deal incorporating a formal limit has been concluded. Trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in early 2026 ended without breakthrough, and subsequent diplomatic efforts have remained deadlocked over territory, security guarantees, and other core issues. With active hostilities ongoing and less than five months remaining before 2027, traders assign only a 7% chance of any such agreement materializing in time. The 93% probability on “No” reflects the absence of a signed accord, Ukraine’s consistent red lines on defense autonomy, and the lack of near-term progress toward a ceasefire or treaty.