Ongoing US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi have produced no breakthrough on core issues such as Ukrainian territorial withdrawals from Donbas and Zaporizhzhia or postwar security guarantees excluding NATO forces, despite recent rounds described as constructive by participants. Russia has intensified long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter 2026-2027 while signaling readiness only for limited measures like an energy truce or a memorandum, contingent on its core demands. Ukrainian positions emphasize reciprocity and a full ceasefire before formal talks, yet major gaps persist with Moscow prioritizing military leverage over rapid settlement. These dynamics, including stalled progress since earlier 2026 efforts, underpin trader consensus on low odds of a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027.