Ongoing military exchanges and unresolved core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality have kept formal negotiations stalled since early 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough. U.S. mediation under the Trump administration yielded limited ceasefires that collapsed amid mutual violations, while recent reports indicate Washington is shifting focus and Ukraine is engaging European partners instead. With positions remaining far apart and no verified diplomatic momentum in the past month, traders assign only a 1.1% chance of a signed deal by August 31. A rapid shift would require an unexpected concession on land or NATO status, a major battlefield reversal, or a sudden high-level summit yielding agreement within the narrow window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$228,640 Wol.
$228,640 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
$228,640 Wol.
$228,640 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military exchanges and unresolved core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality have kept formal negotiations stalled since early 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough. U.S. mediation under the Trump administration yielded limited ceasefires that collapsed amid mutual violations, while recent reports indicate Washington is shifting focus and Ukraine is engaging European partners instead. With positions remaining far apart and no verified diplomatic momentum in the past month, traders assign only a 1.1% chance of a signed deal by August 31. A rapid shift would require an unexpected concession on land or NATO status, a major battlefield reversal, or a sudden high-level summit yielding agreement within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Wolumen
$228,640Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military exchanges and unresolved core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality have kept formal negotiations stalled since early 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough. U.S. mediation under the Trump administration yielded limited ceasefires that collapsed amid mutual violations, while recent reports indicate Washington is shifting focus and Ukraine is engaging European partners instead. With positions remaining far apart and no verified diplomatic momentum in the past month, traders assign only a 1.1% chance of a signed deal by August 31. A rapid shift would require an unexpected concession on land or NATO status, a major battlefield reversal, or a sudden high-level summit yielding agreement within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$228,640Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military exchanges and unresolved core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality have kept formal negotiations stalled since early 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthrough. U.S. mediation under the Trump administration yielded limited ceasefires that collapsed amid mutual violations, while recent reports indicate Washington is shifting focus and Ukraine is engaging European partners instead. With positions remaining far apart and no verified diplomatic momentum in the past month, traders assign only a 1.1% chance of a signed deal by August 31. A rapid shift would require an unexpected concession on land or NATO status, a major battlefield reversal, or a sudden high-level summit yielding agreement within the narrow window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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