Nicolás Maduro holds an overwhelming 82% market share for Venezuela’s leadership at the end of 2026 because the core Chavista power structure, including military loyalty and institutional control, has endured his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent removal from Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as interim president with apparent U.S. acquiescence, anchors the 9% second-place odds through continuity of the ruling United Socialist Party apparatus and ongoing stabilization talks. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined at low single-digit probabilities amid their refusal to join U.S.-backed reconciliation efforts and the absence of scheduled elections before year-end. No major new military, diplomatic, or electoral developments have altered this trader consensus in recent weeks, leaving the regime’s adaptive continuity as the dominant factor shaping implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPrzywódca Wenezueli koniec 2026 roku?
Przywódca Wenezueli koniec 2026 roku?
Nicolás Maduro 82.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 9%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
Brak głowy państwa <1%
$95,576,284 Wol.
$95,576,284 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
9%
María Corina Machado
3%
Brak głowy państwa
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 82.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 9%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
Brak głowy państwa <1%
$95,576,284 Wol.
$95,576,284 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,749,693 Wol.
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,765,540 Wol.
9%
María Corina Machado
$1,443,258 Wol.
3%
Brak głowy państwa
$1,512,342 Wol.
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,152,028 Wol.
<1%
Edmundo González
$1,213,261 Wol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,086,592 Wol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$803,475 Wol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,973,620 Wol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,632,627 Wol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,120,870 Wol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,397,482 Wol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,174,539 Wol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,800,627 Wol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,113,079 Wol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,638,258 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds an overwhelming 82% market share for Venezuela’s leadership at the end of 2026 because the core Chavista power structure, including military loyalty and institutional control, has endured his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent removal from Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as interim president with apparent U.S. acquiescence, anchors the 9% second-place odds through continuity of the ruling United Socialist Party apparatus and ongoing stabilization talks. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined at low single-digit probabilities amid their refusal to join U.S.-backed reconciliation efforts and the absence of scheduled elections before year-end. No major new military, diplomatic, or electoral developments have altered this trader consensus in recent weeks, leaving the regime’s adaptive continuity as the dominant factor shaping implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$95,576,284Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds an overwhelming 82% market share for Venezuela’s leadership at the end of 2026 because the core Chavista power structure, including military loyalty and institutional control, has endured his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent removal from Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as interim president with apparent U.S. acquiescence, anchors the 9% second-place odds through continuity of the ruling United Socialist Party apparatus and ongoing stabilization talks. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined at low single-digit probabilities amid their refusal to join U.S.-backed reconciliation efforts and the absence of scheduled elections before year-end. No major new military, diplomatic, or electoral developments have altered this trader consensus in recent weeks, leaving the regime’s adaptive continuity as the dominant factor shaping implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Wolumen
$95,576,284Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro holds an overwhelming 82% market share for Venezuela’s leadership at the end of 2026 because the core Chavista power structure, including military loyalty and institutional control, has endured his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent removal from Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as interim president with apparent U.S. acquiescence, anchors the 9% second-place odds through continuity of the ruling United Socialist Party apparatus and ongoing stabilization talks. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined at low single-digit probabilities amid their refusal to join U.S.-backed reconciliation efforts and the absence of scheduled elections before year-end. No major new military, diplomatic, or electoral developments have altered this trader consensus in recent weeks, leaving the regime’s adaptive continuity as the dominant factor shaping implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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