Mojtaba Khamenei holds overwhelming trader consensus as the likely leader at the end of 2026 due to his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader, following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei in late February amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. This constitutional transition, backed by hardline clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, positioned him as the incumbent with institutional continuity. Recent August appointments of senior military and Basij officials underscore ongoing decision-making authority despite his limited public appearances and reports of injuries sustained in the attack. Low-probability alternatives like interim figures or opposition voices reflect historical speculation without evidence of near-term shifts, while the modest share for no head of state accounts for lingering health uncertainties in a system emphasizing regime stability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?
Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%
Brak głowy państwa 4.6%
Reza Pahlavi 3.5%
Alireza Arafi 2.5%
$38,601,620 Wol.
$38,601,620 Wol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Brak głowy państwa
5%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Mahmud Ahmadineżad
2%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Radżawi
<1%
Massoud Radżawi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%
Brak głowy państwa 4.6%
Reza Pahlavi 3.5%
Alireza Arafi 2.5%
$38,601,620 Wol.
$38,601,620 Wol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Brak głowy państwa
5%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Mahmud Ahmadineżad
2%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Radżawi
<1%
Massoud Radżawi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds overwhelming trader consensus as the likely leader at the end of 2026 due to his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader, following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei in late February amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. This constitutional transition, backed by hardline clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, positioned him as the incumbent with institutional continuity. Recent August appointments of senior military and Basij officials underscore ongoing decision-making authority despite his limited public appearances and reports of injuries sustained in the attack. Low-probability alternatives like interim figures or opposition voices reflect historical speculation without evidence of near-term shifts, while the modest share for no head of state accounts for lingering health uncertainties in a system emphasizing regime stability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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