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Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?

icon for Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?
Świat·Bliski Wschód

Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.1%

Reza Pahlavi 7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.1%

Brak głowy państwa 2.6%

Polymarket

$8,455,474 Wol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.1%

Reza Pahlavi 7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.1%

Brak głowy państwa 2.6%

Polymarket

$8,455,474 Wol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,069,031 Wol.

64%

Reza Pahlavi

$206,267 Wol.

7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$227,966 Wol.

5%

Brak głowy państwa

$473,784 Wol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$199,314 Wol.

3%

Ahmad Vahidi

$285,013 Wol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$338,967 Wol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$846,814 Wol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$799,228 Wol.

1%

Maryam Radżawi

$304,786 Wol.

1%

Massoud Radżawi

$61,558 Wol.

1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$77,005 Wol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$312,358 Wol.

1%

Mahmud Ahmadineżad

$124,964 Wol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$75,515 Wol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$434,259 Wol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 Wol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$87,111 Wol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$290,404 Wol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$179,708 Wol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$52,010 Wol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$100,091 Wol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$81,861 Wol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,445 Wol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$52,716 Wol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,414 Wol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$87,072 Wol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$74,398 Wol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$39,291 Wol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,666 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader sentiment at 64 percent for remaining Iran's head of state through the end of 2026, driven by his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes. That wartime selection consolidated support among hardline clerics and Revolutionary Guard networks despite longstanding regime aversion to hereditary succession. Recent developments, including Mojtaba's low public profile, reported injuries from the attacks, and signs of divided authority with military figures and President Masoud Pezeshkian, have introduced uncertainty reflected in the moderate probability. Ongoing conflict risks, external regime-change rhetoric, and the absence of scheduled leadership votes or constitutional term limits through year-end continue to shape the market's assessment of continuity versus potential disruption.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Wolumen
$8,455,474
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader sentiment at 64 percent for remaining Iran's head of state through the end of 2026, driven by his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes. That wartime selection consolidated support among hardline clerics and Revolutionary Guard networks despite longstanding regime aversion to hereditary succession. Recent developments, including Mojtaba's low public profile, reported injuries from the attacks, and signs of divided authority with military figures and President Masoud Pezeshkian, have introduced uncertainty reflected in the moderate probability. Ongoing conflict risks, external regime-change rhetoric, and the absence of scheduled leadership votes or constitutional term limits through year-end continue to shape the market's assessment of continuity versus potential disruption.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Wolumen
$8,455,474
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 32 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Mojtaba Khamenei" z 64%, za nim "Reza Pahlavi" z 7%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 64¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 64% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" wygenerował $8.5 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Mar 1, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?", przeglądaj 32 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" jest "Mojtaba Khamenei" z 64%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 64% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Reza Pahlavi" z 7%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.