Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus at 81.8% for Iran's leader at end-2026 due to his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following Ali Khamenei's February assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid transition consolidated power through IRGC and Basij support, overriding earlier regime resistance to hereditary succession despite Mojtaba's limited formal credentials. Other listed figures, including Alireza Arafi and Masoud Pezeshkian, register far lower odds reflecting their marginal roles in the emergency process and subsequent stability measures. No major leadership challenges or constitutional shifts have emerged in the ensuing months, with ongoing military and diplomatic pressures reinforcing continuity through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?
Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%
Brak głowy państwa 4.6%
Reza Pahlavi 3.4%
Alireza Arafi 2.5%
$38,578,413 Wol.
$38,578,413 Wol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Brak głowy państwa
5%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Mahmud Ahmadineżad
2%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Radżawi
<1%
Massoud Radżawi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%
Brak głowy państwa 4.6%
Reza Pahlavi 3.4%
Alireza Arafi 2.5%
$38,578,413 Wol.
$38,578,413 Wol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Brak głowy państwa
5%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Mahmud Ahmadineżad
2%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Radżawi
<1%
Massoud Radżawi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus at 81.8% for Iran's leader at end-2026 due to his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following Ali Khamenei's February assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid transition consolidated power through IRGC and Basij support, overriding earlier regime resistance to hereditary succession despite Mojtaba's limited formal credentials. Other listed figures, including Alireza Arafi and Masoud Pezeshkian, register far lower odds reflecting their marginal roles in the emergency process and subsequent stability measures. No major leadership challenges or constitutional shifts have emerged in the ensuing months, with ongoing military and diplomatic pressures reinforcing continuity through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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