Mojtaba Khamenei’s overwhelming market share reflects his March 2026 appointment by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s death in late-February strikes, backed by IRGC networks and the clerical establishment during active conflict with the US and Israel. Traders appear to price in institutional inertia and wartime stability needs that favor continuity through year-end, even amid persistent questions over his public absence and health since taking office. Recent reporting on internal discussions about a possible post-agreement transition has not yet altered the formal position or triggered a new selection process, keeping alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or others at negligible levels. No scheduled Assembly of Experts vote or confirmed leadership change falls inside the resolution window.