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Świat·Bliski Wschód

Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?

icon for Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?
Świat·Bliski Wschód

Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%

Brak głowy państwa 4.6%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,578,413 Wol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%

Brak głowy państwa 4.6%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,578,413 Wol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,012,061 Wol.

82%

Brak głowy państwa

$1,148,038 Wol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$669,535 Wol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,577 Wol.

2%

Mahmud Ahmadineżad

$1,112,752 Wol.

2%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,272 Wol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,724 Wol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,019,700 Wol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$917,261 Wol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$936,535 Wol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$830,953 Wol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,404 Wol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$534,784 Wol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,745 Wol.

<1%

Maryam Radżawi

$804,583 Wol.

<1%

Massoud Radżawi

$397,001 Wol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,285 Wol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,171 Wol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,055 Wol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$198,979 Wol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$835,627 Wol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,021 Wol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,736 Wol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,062 Wol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,526 Wol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,618 Wol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,611 Wol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,276 Wol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,560 Wol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,100 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus at 81.8% for Iran's leader at end-2026 due to his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following Ali Khamenei's February assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid transition consolidated power through IRGC and Basij support, overriding earlier regime resistance to hereditary succession despite Mojtaba's limited formal credentials. Other listed figures, including Alireza Arafi and Masoud Pezeshkian, register far lower odds reflecting their marginal roles in the emergency process and subsequent stability measures. No major leadership challenges or constitutional shifts have emerged in the ensuing months, with ongoing military and diplomatic pressures reinforcing continuity through year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Wolumen
$38,578,413
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus at 81.8% for Iran's leader at end-2026 due to his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following Ali Khamenei's February assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid transition consolidated power through IRGC and Basij support, overriding earlier regime resistance to hereditary succession despite Mojtaba's limited formal credentials. Other listed figures, including Alireza Arafi and Masoud Pezeshkian, register far lower odds reflecting their marginal roles in the emergency process and subsequent stability measures. No major leadership challenges or constitutional shifts have emerged in the ensuing months, with ongoing military and diplomatic pressures reinforcing continuity through year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Wolumen
$38,578,413
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 32 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Mojtaba Khamenei" z 82%, za nim "Brak głowy państwa" z 5%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 82¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 82% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" wygenerował $38.6 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Feb 28, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?", przeglądaj 32 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" jest "Mojtaba Khamenei" z 82%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 82% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Brak głowy państwa" z 5%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.