The Iranian regime has shown notable institutional resilience amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, including leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and the installation of a successor through established clerical processes. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have contained widespread protests that began in late 2025 over economic pressures, using arrests, internet restrictions, and forceful measures to prevent escalation into sustained unrest. A fragile ceasefire since April has allowed officials to prioritize internal unity and negotiate terms for ending hostilities, with no verified elite defections or military fractures emerging. Traders' strong consensus on the regime enduring past 2026 reflects these factors, though further escalation or renewed domestic challenges could introduce volatility before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$17,907,901 Wol.
$17,907,901 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$17,907,901 Wol.
$17,907,901 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has shown notable institutional resilience amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, including leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and the installation of a successor through established clerical processes. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have contained widespread protests that began in late 2025 over economic pressures, using arrests, internet restrictions, and forceful measures to prevent escalation into sustained unrest. A fragile ceasefire since April has allowed officials to prioritize internal unity and negotiate terms for ending hostilities, with no verified elite defections or military fractures emerging. Traders' strong consensus on the regime enduring past 2026 reflects these factors, though further escalation or renewed domestic challenges could introduce volatility before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$17,907,901Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has shown notable institutional resilience amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, including leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and the installation of a successor through established clerical processes. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have contained widespread protests that began in late 2025 over economic pressures, using arrests, internet restrictions, and forceful measures to prevent escalation into sustained unrest. A fragile ceasefire since April has allowed officials to prioritize internal unity and negotiate terms for ending hostilities, with no verified elite defections or military fractures emerging. Traders' strong consensus on the regime enduring past 2026 reflects these factors, though further escalation or renewed domestic challenges could introduce volatility before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$17,907,901Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime has shown notable institutional resilience amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, including leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and the installation of a successor through established clerical processes. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have contained widespread protests that began in late 2025 over economic pressures, using arrests, internet restrictions, and forceful measures to prevent escalation into sustained unrest. A fragile ceasefire since April has allowed officials to prioritize internal unity and negotiate terms for ending hostilities, with no verified elite defections or military fractures emerging. Traders' strong consensus on the regime enduring past 2026 reflects these factors, though further escalation or renewed domestic challenges could introduce volatility before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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