**The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid leadership decapitation, sustained military confrontation, and acute economic distress underpins the strong trader consensus against its fall before 2027.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior figures, the system transitioned to more opaque, security-centered authority involving IRGC and Basij elements, without fracturing into collapse. Nationwide protests triggered by rial depreciation, inflation exceeding 50-80 percent in segments, and supply disruptions have been contained through force and expanded monitoring, remaining decentralized and reform-oriented rather than regime-change focused. Intensified sanctions and naval measures have contracted the economy sharply, yet the regime has adapted by prioritizing internal cohesion and coercive capacity over prior proxy networks. Historical patterns of elite adaptation and the absence of unified opposition structures capable of rapid takeover within the remaining timeframe reinforce the low implied probability of imminent regime change.